2022 NFL Futures

What's up, everyone? With football season around the corner, I thought I would write up a few of my favorite NFL futures to think about betting before the season begins. The NFL is a different beast when it comes to gambling, and I am ICE cold as I write this, so you probably want to fade these. Who knows though, maybe I'll find my footing with football season and it can carry me into college basketball.

Kirk Cousins over/under 4150.5 Passing Yards

Betting on Kirk Cousins to do anything outside of being a complete fucking weirdo is probably a bad idea. I'm going to do it anyway because I try not to think about the consequences of my actions. Also, this bet will settle in several months, so nobody will even remember that I said this by the time it's over.

Cousins has hit this number in three of his four seasons with the Minnesota Vikings, and five of his seven seasons as a full-time starter. They hired former Rams offensive coordinator Kevin O'Connell as head coach this offseason to replace Mike Zimmer. The offense will likely look a little different for the Vikings with the coaching change, but it shouldn't have too much of an effect on how often they're throwing the ball. Last year, Cousins finished with 4221 yards on 561 attempts, with the Vikings throwing the ball on 58% of snaps. As a benchmark, the Rams threw the ball on 59% of snaps. The Rams also threw the ball all the way to a Super Bowl title, so O'Connell has to be doing something right. The coaching change should help Cousins and the passing game, which already passed the yardage line set for this one.

The Vikings shouldn't be blowing anyone out either. They added a few pieces this offseason in Za'Darius Smith, Harrison Phillips, and Jordan Hicks, so they should be improved, but they still allowed 25 points per game last year. The pass rush should be solid, but it might not be enough to mask the shoddy secondary. Lastly, the Vikings only have two primetime games this season, giving Cousins 15 games with a normal audience, which is how he works best. I'd play this over up to about 4250.5, but you should be able to find it under that mark.

Pick: Kirk Cousins OVER 4150.5 Yards (-115, Bovada)

Breece Hall over/under 800.5 Rushing Yards

Back at the Draft in April, the Jets selected running back Breece Hall with their second-round pick. A bit of an odd pick, considering they selected Michael Carter the year before and he put together a solid rookie season. The Jets are in fact the Jets though, so their decisions shouldn't be surprising to anyone.

On tape, Hall looks to be a very good runner. He was very successful at Iowa State, running for over 3,000 yards in his college career. His 40 time came in at a solid 4.39 while he also performed well in the vertical and broad jumps. I think he can become a very good NFL running back, but I don't think he gets 800 yards on the ground this season.

The first, and biggest reason I don't think he gets to the 800-yard mark is the aforementioned Michael Carter. There's a chance Hall comes in, lights it up, and ends up becoming a bell cow for the Jets. I think it's much more likely that he starts the season behind Carter and eventually takes over as the starter, while still splitting carries. There's no reason for the Jets to give up on Carter, who was near the top of the league in yards after contact last year. They invested in Hall, and they'll want to use him, but I see the Jets trying to get him additional touches in the receiving game, where he excelled in college.

It's really hard to predict injuries, it's really not even worth doing, but it is worth noting how much wear is already on the tires for the Jets' second-rounder. Over the last two years, he touched the ball 591 times, more than anyone in the country. Some would point to that as a sign of durability, but running backs can only take so much punishment, and the NFL is a different beast. The Jets won't want to run him into the ground in year one.

If Hall averages a very generous 4.5 yards per carry, he'll need about 180 carries to hit the 800-yard mark. Last season, the Jets handed the ball to running backs 326 times. They should be a better team this year and be able to run the ball more, but I don't see a situation where Hall is given that big of a workload on the ground.

The Pick: Breece Hall UNDER 800.5 Rushing Yards (-115. DraftKings)

Brandin Cooks over/under 950.5 Receiving Yards

Brandin Cooks is consistently one of the most underrated receivers in the league. He's also one of the most consistent receivers in the league. Cooks has been in the league for eight years, reaching 1,000 yards in seven of them. One of the two years he finished below that mark was his rookie season, when he started just seven games. There's not a lot to this pick outside of that. If he plays a full season, he gets over 950 yards.

I don't know who Mike Bullock is, and I only kinda (read: really) want to argue with him on Twitter, but I thoroughly disagree with his assessment of the Texans' weapons. They didn't bring in any receiver help outside of John Metchie, who was diagnosed with leukemia and won't be seeing the field this season. Davis Mills had a solid rookie season; he won't light the world on fire, but he showed he's good enough to get Cooks the ball. Cooks should see at least 120 targets again this year and should be able to convert that into yet another 1000-yard season, even if he does it quietly.

The Pick: Brandin Cooks OVER 950.5 Receiving Yards (-112, Fanduel)

Allan Lazard over/under 56.5 Receptions

Aaron Rodgers has to throw the ball to someone. I guess he doesn't have to. He could go host Jeopardy, become a witch doctor, or try to reconnect with his family. Okay, he won't give up football to reconnect with his family, but he could announce he's doing just about anything other than football and I would believe him. I'm gonna go ahead and assume he'll be the quarterback of the Green Bay Packers. If that's the case, he has to throw the ball to someone. Allan Lazard will likely be that someone.

Lazard played 15 games last year and caught 40 passes. 56.5 is a fair bit higher than that, but it's not unachievable. Rodgers threw the ball 531 times last year with over 30% of them going to Davante Adams. Adams is in Vegas with Derek Carr and company this year, so those targets will have to go to someone else. Rodgers will probably have to settle for more check downs to Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon, but there's still plenty of work for Lazard. He'll enter the season as the number one option for Rodgers on the outside. Christian Watson could emerge as an option, although it will likely take time for Rodgers to build a rapport with the rookie. Four catches per game will get him to 68 if he plays a full season, I don't think that's out of the question at all for the Packers' new number one receiver.

The Pick: Allan Lazard OVER 56.5 Receptions (-110, DraftKings)

NFC East Division Winner

Nobody repeats in the NFC East. The last team to win the division in back-to-back years was the Philadelphia Eagles back in 2003/2004. The Cowboys won the division last year, so I'm ruling them out for this year. The Giants are the Giants, so I'm ruling them out for this year. Washington has Carson Wentz at quarterback, so they've ruled themselves out for this year.

If you're literate, know the teams in the NFC East, and have made it this far in the post, that just leaves the Eagles.

Offensively, Jalen Hurts may not be the best quarterback in the league, but he can find ways to win games. They also went out and brought in A.J. Brown, instantly giving them a game-breaking receiver to go along with Devonta Smith. Their biggest improvements come on the defensive side of the ball though. They used their first-round draft pick on Jordan Davis, an absolute unit of a man who can eat blocks, stop the run, and free up pass-rushing lanes for others. They also drafted Nakobe Dean, an athletic linebacker with massive potential who slipped to the fourth round due to concerns with his health. That's not all, they also brought in Kyzir White, PFF's 20th-graded linebacker, as well as Haason Reddick (23.5 sacks the last two seasons). On top of that, they traded for Chauncey Gardner-Johnson to add some depth to their secondary, he also has that dog in him. With another playmaker on offense and what should be an improved defense from last year's unit that ranked 25th in DVOA, I believe the Eagles have what it takes to win the NFC East.

The Pick: Eagles to win the NFC East (+150, DraftKings)