Pablo Lopez, 2023 American League Cy Young

I know what you're thinking, the title is ridiculous. It may be an overreaction to two strong starts. It could even be straight-up delusional. But, at 55-1 odds, why not take a shot? Sign up for your legal sportsbook, take that bonus money, and thank me later. It may seem like a long shot now, but give it a month or two and it will look a lot better. Here's why:

First and foremost - the fastball. Lopez is throwing the ball much harder this season. It's only April and difficult to say if that sticks, but the uptick is significant. Throughout his career, he hasn't shown much velocity dip throughout the season in the past. In fact, he typically adds velocity as the season goes on. The harder the fastball the better, it's not rocket science.

Fastball velocity alone isn't enough to turn a good pitcher into an elite one. We need success with the secondary pitches. Lopez already has a really good changeup. In 2022, he was throwing it 35% of the time. His changeup and fastball combined to account for 75% of his pitches. His primary breaking pitch was a curveball he was throwing about 10% of the time that was avoiding hard contact but wasn't getting any swings and misses. This year, Lopez added a sweeper. Or a slider. Or whatever. I'm not here to argue semantics. The point is, he's now throwing his sweeper more than his changeup and having pretty insane success with it. It's only been two starts, but so far the pitch is returning a 61% whiff rate and an absurd 49% CSW. Even when those numbers will come down to earth as hitters adjust, he's become a new pitcher. It also does a great job mirroring his changeup, making that pitch even more of a weapon. The sweeper allows him to work on both halves of the plate, approach hitters differently, and go even deeper into games. He's a totally new guy.

So what about the competition? There are several guys with better odds than our man at this point. Jacob DeGrom? He's bound to have an IL stint or two. Ohtani? Not enough innings. Dylan Cease? He's good for a blow-up start or two to balloon his ERA. Shane McClanahan? The Rays probably won't let him pitch enough innings. Gerrit Cole? He's actually a great choice given that he's never won it, but he's weird and ugly. There are others to consider, but come on, it's 55-1. Live a little.