Super Bowl Props

The Super Bowl is probably the biggest gambling day in all of American sports. You can break down the tape, pour over the statistics, and read all the trends to find an angle for the game. That's no fun though. Super Bowl bets are about getting weird. It's about drinking somewhere between eight and eleven light beers, eating copious amounts of appetizers, and screaming at the National Anthem singer to hurry the fuck up. Last season, if you tailed my picks over at QBList.com, you would have gone 6-0 and been up 19 units. This year will surely be a disaster. Let's get weird.

Coin Toss

If you're going to bet on the coin toss, make sure you're getting even odds. Most of the major retail sportsbooks will probably give you +100 on both sides, if that's the case, feel free to place a bet. If you're getting anything less than even, find a friend who wants to bet on the other side and play it with them. It's a true 50/50, so you shouldn't be taking any juice.

That being said, bet heads. Matthew Slater chose heads in overtime in Super Bowl LI and the Patriots went on to win the game. I've chosen heads any time I've had to flip a coin since that day. It's the correct option. Heads +100

First Touchdown Scorer

Last year, I was able to win by taking Odell Beckham Jr. to score the first touchdown based solely on the fact that he was a new father, and therefore had new dad strength. He tore his ACL not long after scoring which may debunk by dad strength theory, but a win is a win nonetheless.

I've scoured the internet for hours (read: a few minutes) looking for a player who's recently become a father. The closest I came was Jason Kelce, whose wife is due around the time of the Super Bowl. Unfortunately, Jason Kelce plays on the offensive line and likely won't be scoring the first touchdown.

The Eagles haven't allowed a first-quarter touchdown in the playoffs, so we'll narrow our search to Eagles players. Jalen Hurts is the obvious choice, as he scores just about every game. Hurts doesn't have the storyline that jumps out at you though; no pregnant wife or sick child who asked him to score, as far as I know. Miles Sanders, on the other hand, is childhood friends with Bills' safety Damar Hamlin. Hamlin, as well all know, collapsed on the field on Monday Night Football and was in critical condition for some time. You can't tell me Miles Sanders isn't scoring the game's first touchdown and holding up the number three on his fingers. Nearly dead childhood friend isn't quite new dad strength, but it definitely has some juice. Miles Sanders First Touchdown +700

Over/Under 2.5 Players to Attempt a Pass

Over 2.5 players to throw a pass is my favorite bet every year. You have to assume each starting quarterback will throw a pass and then you only need one more. There are a couple of different ways you can get the last one. The first would be an injury to either quarterback. That would suck for the purposes of watching the game, but at least you'd win the bet.

The other, much more fun way to win, is a skill player throwing a pass. Last year, both Cooper Kupp and Joe Mixon threw passes. In the previous two years, only the quarterbacks had pass attempts, but Deebo Samuel did start to throw before he aborted the play call. We even had the Philly Special and Danny Amendola throw a pass to Tom Brady in Super Bowl 52. Both teams have two weeks to prepare for the game and no need to save any play calls for next week. You know Andy Reid is cooking up some absolute sicko play call that has Travis Kelce throwing the ball to a backup defensive end on third and goal. All it takes is just one play to win this one. OVER 2.5 Players to Throw a Pass +165. You could also go with a non-QB to throw a touchdown at +450 if you're thinking about a potential homage to the Philly Special. Nick Sirriani does seem like the sentimental type.

What Will Happen First: Sack or Touchdown?

Both of these teams have very good offensive lines and have game wreckers on the defensive line. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts also both like to hold on to the ball and try to extend the play. I'll take a sack before a touchdown without a doubt. Bad snap, extended play, or just Haason Reddick getting around the edge and getting to Mahomes. Last week against the Bengals, there were a few plays where Mahomes tried to escape up the middle and barely made the line of scrimmage. He's probably healthier now and having an easier time scrambling, but I could see a first-possession sack with either of these teams. Sack before touchdown -105.

Super Bowl MVP

The obvious choice for Super Bowl MVP is either of the quarterbacks. That tends to be how it goes given the nature of the game. Last year, I won on Cooper Kupp MVP by using Vegas to beat Vegas. It's as simple as looking at the player props, finding a stat line that could win MVP, and going from there. Take a look at Travis Kelce's lines: 6.5 receptions, 79.5 receiving yards, and -130 to score a touchdown. Say he goes seven catches for 85 yards and two touchdowns in a low-scoring game? That's MVP-worthy. You could maybe talk yourself into A.J. Brown because of his big play ability, but the lines set for him (4.5 receptions, 71.5 yards, +110 to score) aren't quite enticing enough for me to pick him to win MVP. I'll sprinkle a little bit on Travis Kelce +1200.

Bonus Pick

No, he will not.