College Hoops Picks - December 31, 2022

Note to self: never trust the Kentucky offense again, especially on the road. The entire offense is "get it to Tshiebwe and hope he gets fouled". Tough loss in Missouri, but at least I now know the Tigers are for real. LSU came down to the wire and cashed, and Mississippi State was easy money. That's another winning day. Last day of the year. Let's get it. 2022 CBB Record: 17-4

College basketball Saturdays tend to get away from me pretty quickly. Pretty much every team in the country plays, so there are always a few marquee matchups. I look up at the end of the day and somehow I made eight bets. Last season, my job prevented me from sitting on the couch all day and watching the games. I'd typically miss the noon tips entirely. This year, I'll be glued to my couch watching basketball as I neglect my responsibilities and real-world friends in favor of watching 18-23-year-olds play basketball.

Going into the season, I was really high on TCU. They started off the season poorly with some tight games against Arkansas Pine Bluff and Northwestern State, and for that reason, I think they're being underrated by some. Since Damion Baugh returned from suspension, their offensive efficiency has been about 115, without him, it's just 104. They've been better defensively with Baugh in the lineup as well. Point is, TCU isn't the same team that they were through the first month or so of the season.

Texas Tech is a solid team. They play good defense, share the ball and get good looks. They just aren't battle-tested yet. They lost to Creighton and Ohio State in Maui; outside of those two games, they haven't played anyone of note. I backed Kentucky in their first true road game last week. That was a mistake. I won't make that mistake again. TCU -3.0

Movie review: Creed II really makes no sense. Drago is at least 40 pounds heavier than Creed. How is that allowed? How does he win? 3.5/5 Stars.

This will likely be the most public pick of the day. I do not care. UConn hasn't won a game by less than eight points this year. Xavier isn't going to be the one to end that streak. UConn has already won on the road at Florida. The Swamp is probably a more hostile environment than at Xavier. No offense to the degenerates in Cincinnati, SEC country is just different.

It's this simple. UConn shoots a ton of threes, and they make a ton of threes. Xavier runs teams off the three-point line but doesn't do a great job of contesting the shots their opponents do take. Teams are shooting over 37% from beyond the arc against the Musketeers. I hate to use the transitive property when comparing scores, but if Xavier only beat Seton Hall by three at home, they're not keeping this one within three. UConn -2.5

New Years' Resolution: I think I'm going to try to run 1,000 miles this year. That's about 20 miles a week. That's not that many. I'll also listen to "I'm Gonna Be (500 Miles)" by The Proclaimers the entire time.

Elsewhere in the Big East, Marquette travels to Villanova. Nova has been a lot better since five-star freshman Cam Whitmore returned from injury. Even with Kyle Neptune taking over for Jay Wright, it's the same old Villanova team as every year. They work the shot clock, run their sets, knock down their free throws, and have guards playing in the post for some reason that I still don't understand. They even have another Archidiacono.

Marquette likes to get up and down and play free-flowing offense. Villanova isn't going to let that happen. They're playing at home and won't be sucked into a run-and-gun game. Mississippi State was able to bog the Golden Eagles down on a neutral court. Nova will likely be able to do the same. I'm a little concerned by how high much scoring has happened in other Villanova games, but I'll roll the dice and bet on a game played in the half-court. Marquette/Villanova under 145.5

College Football: Georgia -6.0. Stetson Bennett is 25 years old and somehow playing college football. I'm not betting against that guy.

One more for today. I'm taking Virginia Tech -1.0 vs. Wake Forest. Another road favorite, which I just said I learned my lesson about, but it's the second road game in a row for the Hokies. Tech is better in almost every statistical category. They just lost to Boston College on the road. If they're as good a team as I think they are, they'll bounce back and win this one. Tyree Appleby could singlehandedly win the game for Wake Forest, but I'll take my chances with the Hokies. I like the under 141.0 here as well, but four picks are enough for one afternoon.