College Hoops Picks - February 4 2023

Took an absolute bath the last time out so I decided to take the week off and regain my bearings. I also got laid off, so I really need these wins. Desperately. My family is starving and this is my only income. Send help. 2022 CBB Record: 30-21

MissMatch

Out of principle, I'll bet the under on Mississippi State games over 135. I don't actually check the line on all Mississippi State games, but if I happen to see it, I'll take the under. On Saturday, they're hosting Missouri at 6 PM. You'll probably be able to tell if this pick will win within the first four minutes based on the pace. The Tigers will try to run, but I don't think Mississippi State will get sucked into that trap. Last weekend against TCU, their game finished at 155, after overtime. That was with Eddie Lampkin out, and the Bulldogs shooting over 60% from inside the arc.

Missouri is vulnerable to the three, but Mississippi State shooting the three is about a futile endeavor. Tolu Smith should have another good game as Mizzou doesn't have much size and struggles to rebound, but outside of that, there's little offense for the Bulldogs. With State at home, I like them to grind the game to a halt and force Missouri to play in the half-court. Missouri/Mississippi State under 139.5

Tobacco Road

Duke is probably a better team than UNC, and they're playing at home. With a Duke/UNC game, you can throw all that out the window. It's the most even rivalry in all of sports. It doesn't matter the talent difference, the venue, the occasion, or the stakes - the game is probably coming down to the last possession.

I don't know who on the Tar Heels can guard Kyle Filipowski. It's probably Pete Nance, but they've leaned on him a lot over the past week. 16.5 is a little too high to take Filipowski's points over, but I could see three or four made threes from the seven-footer. Regardless, I'll take the points when these two teams meet up ten times out of ten. UNC +3.0

Karma's a Hawkeye

Iowa canceled 300 tickets purchased by the 'Orange Krush' Illinois student section after they falsely bought the tickets by posing as a Boys and Girls Center. Let me say that again, they tried to invade the Iowa gym by buying tickets as the Boys and Girls center as cover. You can't possibly win a game after doing that. The Iowa student section will be louder than ever, and one quick run could take Illinois out of it. You can't pretend to be a charity to go to an away game. Big time vibes game for Iowa. Iowa -3.0

Quick Hitters

Three picks on the card, keep it light. Random thoughts for the day:

• Kansas at Iowa State feels a lot like Kansas at Kansas State. Iowa State grabs the win.

• Rutgers runs away from Michigan State at home. The RAC is a fortress. Rutgers -4.0

• Virginia Tech has struggled a bit lately, I think Virginia's defense can give them fits. Under 130 feels like a smart play.

• Texas Tech is not good. The offense is slow and uninspired. The no-middle defense doesn't work without experienced players in the system. Baylor will run it up.

• Tennessee needs a win at home to stay in contention for the SEC regular season title. A ten-point spread is too much for that offense though. I won't touch this one.

• Florida State -4.0 vs. Louisville. Florida State has struggled at times with injuries, but Louisville STINKS. Add it to my card.

• I feel like I always pick unders on TCU games, probably because of last year's team. If they can get healthy, they're a dangerous team come tournament time. Oklahoma State at home is a tough task though. I like the under 138.0 again.

• I have a feeling the Clemson magic has worn off. Miami +2.0 on the road.

• The game of the day is Indiana-Purdue. Zach Edey vs. Trayce Jackson-Davis? Sign me up. It's a pick 'em but I don't see a clear winner here.

• Kansas State beats Texas at home because that's what they do. That gym gets LOUD.

• Creighton probably shouldn't be favored by ten points over Nova. Two quality programs going head-to-head ends in the single digits.

• Florida's defense has been great this season, and while Kentucky has been better since limiting Sahvir Wheeler's minutes, I see this as a low-scoring affair. Under 135.5

That's all we got for Saturday, great slate. Best of luck.