College Hoops Picks - January 10, 2022

0-3 on the weekend. I'm in my own head and was a little too in the weeds. Back to the basics, using my eyeballs and picking winners. Lotta season left. 2022 CBB Record: 21-11

Leading Off

I want to get away from using KenPom and start using my eyeballs to make picks. Luckily for me, the Big 12 is a complete mess on KenPom because all of the teams beat up on each other and everybody gets lifted as a result. Texas Tech is winless in the conference, and they're still #41 in the rankings.

As I said, Tech has dropped three straight in the conference, but only by a combined 14 points. They took Kansas to the wire despite losing a few guys to injury throughout the game. They'll probably struggle to score against the Cyclone's defense, that's true of most teams. They're good enough on the glass and at getting to the free-throw line to hang with Iowa State, especially with a total as low as 128. Texas Tech +6.0

Overs are Cooler than Unders

The Kansas State offense is humming. In back-to-back games, they've gone over 90 points. In the NBA, that's nothing. In college ball, that should catch your eye. It's not like they're doing it against nobodies, too. They scored 116 at Texas and followed it up by going to Baylor and scoring 97 (86 in regulation).

Oklahoma State has a great defense, but they're not going to go on the road and be the first team to slow the Wildcat's down. I don't typically like taking team overs in the 70s, but Markquis Nowell and Keyontae Johnson are scoring at an elite level, and K-State shares the ball as well as anybody. Over 67% of the Wildcats' field goals are assisted, and they're playing at a fast pace while they do it. This game should be played at a high speed and get into the high 70s. Kansas State over 71.5

They Have Basketball in Nebraska?

As a matter of fact, they do. Nebraska has been hot and cold this year; they dominated Iowa and took Purdue to overtime, but also dropped a game to St. John's and barely eked out a win against Minnesota. It's impossible to know which Nebraska team is going to show up. I'm going to pretend that I do anyways.

With this being a home game and Nebraska playing against a team starting with the letter I, this game obviously should play out most similarly to last week's game against Iowa. Besides their alphabetical likeness, the two teams play a similar style. Fast-paced offense, and mediocre defense, but enough athletes to win games. Illinois is still figuring out life without Kofi Cockburn and hasn't quite mastered its new offensive style. Nebraska should be able to grind the game to a halt and disrupt Brad Underwood's half-court sets to keep this one in the high 50s, low 60s. Illinois/Nebraska under 137.0

Dog of the Day

This is where the basics I was talking about come into play. The stats don't matter. I'm playing against Vegas, not picking a basketball game. I took LSU on Saturday. They looked like shit. They've dropped two in a row. It's as simple as that. They don't lose three in a row, especially at home. LSU +1.0 is the certified Dog of the Day™ (3-3). Woof.

Quick Hitters

- I'd probably take Wisconsin in a pick 'em at home, if Tyler Wahl plays. Michigan State hasn't lost a game with Malik Hall in the lineup though, tough call.

- Seton Hall might not have the offense to cover a ten-point spread against Georgetown. Georgetown is BAD though.

- I don't think Butler has the offensive firepower to keep up with St. John's on the road.

- I'm not taking Kentucky to cover a 19-point spread against just about anyone. Take the Gamecocks.

- Virginia should take care of business against UNC. I don't see the Tar Heel offense getting much going against the always-strong Virginia defense. 4.5 is a few too many for me to lay with UVA though.

- Tennessee has been running over everyone they play. I won't lay 17 points with anyone, but a first-half spread could be the play against a middling Vandy team.