College Hoops Picks - January 14, 2022

We've hit a slide. It was inevitable after such a hot start. I'm ashamed of it, disappointed in myself, and most of all sorry. I've taken the last few days to reflect (i.e. not write) and study the board (i.e. continue to watch basketball) to be better going forward. Still eight games over 50%, but I have higher aspirations. 2022 CBB Record: 22-14

Leading Off

Georgia has had a great sports week. Won a National Championship on Monday and beat Mississippi State on Wednesday to move to 12-4. Last year at this time, they were 5-12. This year, Mike White is coaching his ass off and has them at 12-4, with solid wins over Notre Dame and Auburn on the resume. They're four-and-a-half-point underdogs at Mississippi; I think taking the points here is probably a solid play.

I'm not here to take the spread though. I'm going back to my tried and sometimes true method of taking unders. I've come to realize I hate taking unders because they're infuriating when you lose, but that's where the money is made. Neither of these teams does anything particularly well on offense. Georgia is an okay three-point shooting team, but they don't take a ton of threes. Ole Miss is useless from behind the arc, shooting under 30% as a team. They've both shown they struggle against good defense; earlier this week Georgia scored 58 points while shooting 31 free throws. Almost half of their points were from the line. Ole Miss has been held under 60 several times, including games against the aforementioned Mississippi State, as well as Memphis and Tennessee. The pace should be pretty slow, neither team has the shotmakers to get above the mark set for this one. Georgia/Mississippi under 135.5

They Have Props in College, Too

I can't give an official pick here, because I don't have a line available, nor do I know when one will become available. You've probably got to check a domestic sportsbook around 10 AM tomorrow to find a line, so stay tuned for that.

Wisconsin may be playing their third game in a row without Tyler Wahl. He's the team's leading scorer and best rebounder. Wisconsin has a massive problem on the boards without him. Steven Crowl is just one guy and can't do it all on his own. On the other side of the court, Trayce Jackson-Davis is a monster. He's averaging just under ten rebounds a game and should have no problem cleaning up on the boards against a Wahl-less Wisconsin. Anything below a line at 10.0 and I'm taking the over on TJD rebounds.

All Aboard the Muss Buss

Arkansas and Vanderbilt are both coming off two straight losses, although they're likely heading in different directions. Vanderbilt, barring a miracle, will not be making the tournament. Losses to Southern Miss, VCU, and Grambling State all but guarantee it. Arkansas, on the other hand, needs every win it can get to secure a high seed in March.

I hate banking on road teams to perform, it almost never works. The disparity in talent is just too high here. Vanderbilt just doesn't have the playmakers to break down the Arkansas defense, particularly at the guard position. They don't have the ball handlers to get into their sets and take care of the ball against a team with active hands like Arkansas.

Arkansas is going to play quickly, while Vandy will have the opposite idea. I always lean with the home team when it comes to dictating the tempo, and can see them being able to take the air out of the ball. A low-scoring game is their best chance at winning this one, and while I don't think they can get the job done, they can certainly try. Vanderbilt under 68.5

Dog of the Day

The previous Dog of the Day™ (3-4) lost by 28 points. Not a great look for the brand. It was LSU +1.0 though, which isn't the spirit of the Dog of the Day™. The Dog of the Day™ just needs to scrap its way to a cover, not win outright, and that's what we're here to do today.

Missouri is traveling to Florida after getting run out of the gym by Texas A&M. The Tigers need to continue to add resume-building wins to secure a spot in the tournament, and a road win against Florida would be a nice way to strengthen their case. It's only January, but every game matters for these teams that could be on the bubble in March.

Missouri plays a fast-paced, frenetic style. They've got athletes and they want to run you off the court. Florida is willing to play a similar style, although they play a little more in the half-court. Where Missouri gets into trouble is on the defensive glass, they've been a terrible rebounding team, and Colin Castleton could give them trouble. I'm banking on a high-speed game to limit the effects of the offensive glass. Missouri +5.5 is the certified Dog of the Day™.

Quick Hitters

- Kentucky probably isn't going to score a lot of points against Tennessee tomorrow, but it's become trendy to trash Kentucky so I'm staying away from all things related to that game.

- I like Providence to stay within 6.5 against Creighton, they always seem to be in tight games.

- Kansas State/TCU should be a track meet. No leans from me, but a fun game to watch regardless.

- Again, I like LSU to cover as heavy underdogs. They've let me down twice in a row now though, so I'm not touching it.

- Clemson is better than Duke, but Duke probably has more talent, if that makes sense. I like Clemson to win, but it's tough to pick against a team like the Blue Devils that could figure it out at any given moment.

- Baylor/Iowa State feels like an under game. I'm not sure why, but it does.

- Texas Tech keeps it within ten against Texas. That's a rivalry game that's bound to go down to the wire.