College Hoops Picks - January 4, 2022

Two wins and two losses last time out. Too many favorites. Have to get back to my roots of unders and underdogs. That's where my bread is buttered. Where my family is fed. Where the hand I shouldn't bite that feeds me lives. Something like that. Anyways, 2022 CBB Record: 19-6

Back to my roots, we're taking an underdog to start off Wednesday. Not just any underdog, but a certified Dog of the Day™ (2-1). Over in the ACC, Wake Forest heads to Chapel Hill to take on the Tar Heels. Giving Wake Forest eleven points is simply too many for a conference game. Wake isn't the best team in the conference and is realistically middle of the pack, probably right around the same level as NC State, but they do have maybe the best player in the conference in Tyree Appleby. He's averaging over 18 points per game and getting his teammates involved by averaging over five assists.

Outside of Appleby, the Demon Deacons (stupid name) have capable three-point shooters in Damari Monsanto (38%) and Daivien Williamson (39%). UNC, as a team, shoots just over 30% from three, mostly because they take horrible shots. Caleb Love and R.J. Davis both think they're "him" and huck contested threes for no reason at all. There's no cohesive offense outside of Armando Bacot in the post, but Wake has the size to contain him, at least as much as he can be contained.

UNC could hit their bad shots and run away with this one. They have the offensive firepower to do it, especially at home. I don't think Wednesday is the day it all clicks though, I'll take Wake to keep it close. Wake Forest +11.0

Movie review: I'm not sure what to make of The Banshees of Inisherin. It's hilarious but also sad at the same time. Left me thinking about it well after it was done. 4/5 stars.

UConn is going to cover the five-point spread against Providence. I won't bet it because I refuse to bet another road favorite after I got burned a few times, but they're going to cover. That's a fact.

Tweet of the Week: @BurnerWJP

Back to my roots. We're going with the under in Chicago. Northwestern is hosting Illinois in the later window tomorrow night after a rough loss to Ohio State. I'm tempted to take Northwestern plus the two-and-a-half, but their lack of shooting and weak schedule gives me pause. Instead, I'll take under 131.5 and bet on this one to be played in the low 60s.

As I said, Northwestern struggles offensively. Earlier this season, they scored just 42 points against Auburn, and just this weekend scored 57 against Ohio State. Illinois is no slouch defensively, holding opponents to 42.5% percent inside the arc. The Wildcats have just about nobody who can shoot the three very well. Julian Roper shoots 40% from distance but doesn't play enough to really make an impact.

Illinois has a few offensive playmakers in Terrence Shannon and Dain Dainja. They mostly work on the inside though, where Northwestern excels defensively. They'll pack the paint and contest shots, forcing long possessions and grinding down the clock. Matthew Meyer was a dangerous shooter during his time at Baylor, although he hasn't quite integrated into the Illini offense just yet. Illinois likes to get out and run which could speed up the game. I tend to side with the home team to dictate the pace, especially when a team has a significant experience advantage as Northwestern does. I'm not taking Northwestern, but I see this game coming down to the wire - Wildcats 61, Illini 59.

MLB: Jeff Passan tweeting that the Red Sox signed Rafael Devers to a one-year deal to avoid arbitration was cruel. He knew what he was doing. My heart jumped 10 BPM after the first line of the tweet. Uncalled for, Jeff.

Elsewhere, TCU +5.5 at Baylor is intriguing, although they weren't very impressive in their game against Tech on Saturday. I'd also look at the Missouri team under if it creeps up to 76.0. I really like Arkansas' defense and ability to rebound, but I've learned my lesson in betting against the Mizzou offense. They've got some serious firepower. That number is sitting around 74.5 right now and I don't expect it to come up, but I'll keep my eye on it either way. Lots of good basketball on Wednesday. Ignore your other responsibilities and glue your eyes to a screen as god intended.