College Hoops Picks - January 7, 2022

1-1 again last time out and now 4-4 in my last eight. Indiana blew a 21-point lead after Race Thompson left due to injury and I wasn't smart enough to hedge my bet. Huge Saturday full of games. 2022 CBB Record: 21-8

Leading Off

I'm not seeing a ton I love on the board for tomorrow, but one game that jumped out at me was Iowa State at TCU. Looking at the stats matched up side by side, this game has the potential to be borderline unwatchable. TCU struggles to shoot the three, Iowa State defends the three incredibly well. Iowa State turns the ball over a lot, TCU forces a lot of turnovers. Neither team shoots the ball very well from the charity stripe. Both teams are top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. It's another game being played in the low 60s. TCU/Iowa State under 132.0.

Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me

I'll learn my lesson someday, but not today. I'm going with Arkansas +1.5 at Auburn. Auburn is a tough place to play, and Arkansas is a young team. Auburn is more experienced, but also significantly dumber. I just don't see a way that Wendell Green and KD Johnson beat this Arkansas defense. Maybe they start hitting all their audacious three-pointers, but there's little evidence to suggest that happens. Jabari Smith isn't around anymore to will them back into games. This team just isn't that good.

Dog of the Day

Last one for today, even though there's a lot to talk about. LSU is playing well enough to make the NCAA tournament. They've already got a very solid win against Arkansas and took Kentucky to the wire on the road. They're long, athletic, and play really good team defense. I haven't had a chance to watch Texas A&M play yet this season, but they're coming off three straight wins and are in line for a letdown spot.

A&M is at home, so they should at least have jerseys for today's game, but they have plenty of other problems. Henry Coleman III, Manny Obaseki, and Julius Marble all left their last game vs. Florida. Obaseki is already ruled out, while Coleman and Marble are game-time decisions. Obaseki doesn't take a ton of shots, but he does provide offensive spacing, while Marble and Coleman are great on the glass.

With LSU coming off a tough loss, I like them to bounce back and take the game. I'll take the points because I'm conservative, but I think the moneyline is a great play here. LSU +4.5 is a certified Dog of the Day™ (3-2).

Quick Hitters

- It's really hard to not take Kansas -1.0 at West Virginia, but I can't bring myself to keep taking road teams straight up.

- NC State +5.5 is really interesting against Virginia Tech, but there's way too much uncertainty in both teams' injury reports.

- Texas Tech -4.0 is also a great line, but they've got a couple of guys listed as game-time decisions.

- Side note: if there's a resource with real-time updates on player statuses that you know about, please let me know. I can only watch head coach interview's on Twitter for so long before I go insane.

- I can't seem to figure out Missouri, so I'm staying away, but I have a feeling they beat the brakes off of Vanderbilt.

- UConn is the same way. Creighton is so much better with Ryan Kalkbrenner in the lineup, but KenPom still has this as a nine-point UConn win. Huskies could be worth a sprinkle.