College Hoops Picks - November 14, 2022

I should start writing all of these late at night when I should be sleeping. Maybe that's when I do my best thinking. 2-0 last time out on my two unders, winning by a combined 47 points. I'm not going to track my profit because that's a pain, just assume everything is -110 and I'll shoot for 53%. 2022 CBB Record: 2-0

The season is young. Most teams still don't know their identity. For that reason, I can be smarter than Vegas. And I am. This line is so wrong it hurts. A new look Butler heads to Penn State in their second game of the season. Thad Motta takes over at Butler after a few years out of coaching. Mark Titus said he's a phenomenal coach and an even better person. I believe Mark.

Motta hit the transfer portal hard and completely rebuilt the Bulldogs' roster this off-season. The transfer class, headlined by Manny Bates and Eric Hunter Jr., brings a lot of experience to the table. Hunter comes from Purdue, where he shot 44% from three. Butler struggled from distance last year and will need to fill that hole to make noise in the Big East this season. Outside of Hunter, Chuck Harris and Simas Lukosius have the ability to knock down shots, although they struggled the first time out.

Penn State has frontcourt issues, Their two tallest players are 6'10" and they're both freshmen. The next tallest is 6'7". Rebounding is going to be an issue for the Nittany Lions. Enter Manny Bates. Bates is a g rad transfer, 6'11", and an elite rim protector. He can score too, going for 25 points and 11 rebounds in Butler's opener. I expect Bates to get plenty of second-chance opportunities to keep Butler in this game. A nine-point spread is way too many for Thad Motta's new-look Bulldog squad. This is a certified Dog of the Day™ (pictured right) pick. Butler +9.0.

I don't like big favorites, but at the beginning of the season, they're unavoidable. Last season was a down year for Tony Bennet's Virginia Cavaliers, missing the tournament for the first time since 2013. Continuity in the program should help this year's team take a step forward and get back to the top of the ACC.

Virginia comes into this one having destroyed Monmouth with their patented smothering defense, allowing just 42 points. Monmouth isn't an offensive juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but 42 points is 42 points regardless. Northern Iowa comes to town having lost its top four scorers from last season. Outside of Bowen Born and Nate Heise, they don't bring back substantial minutes. They'll try to play with pace, but Virginia won't get sucked into that game, especially at home. The experience of Virginia should be enough for them to run away with this one. Virginia -16.0.

That's all for today, might try to cook up another for the Champion's classic on Tuesday when the season really kicks off.