College Hoops Picks - November 15, 2022

Author's note: I'm writing this during Butler/Penn State. Commentary will be provided throughout in italics.

The season's first Dog of the Day™ is almost certain to be a loser. Butler has zero (0) shooters whatsoever. I assumed Eric Hunter would bring some spacing or one of the other guys would step up. I was wrong. If Penn State never jumped at a shot fake, Butler would never score. 2022 CBB Record: 2-1?

The Champions Classic is Tuesday night featuring two marquee matchups. Naturally, I'll be watching Stanford vs. San Diego State. It's the exact same game as Stanford vs. Wisconsin, minus the baseball stadium. Nathan Mensah is a 6'11" monster protecting the rim. Jaedon Lee and Keshod Johnson also are imposing defensive presences.

Stanford was bothered by Wisconsin's size. They'll be bothered by the Aztec's size. They're shooting 23% from deep this season. That won't be enough to put up a big number here. Stanford under 65.5

Butler has tied the game in the second half. Great adjustment by Thad Motta to get Manny Bates the ball in the high post. I was so right about him abusing the Penn State frontcourt. 2022 CBB Record: 3?-0

Okay, on to the Champions Classic. The first big matchup has Kentucky taking on Michigan State. The Spartans lost a tight one on the aircraft carrier against Gonzaga on Friday but showed they have what it takes to make some noise in a wide-open Big Ten.

Oscar Tshiebwe is a huge question mark. He hasn't suited up at all yet this season. John Calipari was incredibly unhelpful when asked about his status yesterday, saying that he might play or he might not play. Thanks, John.

Butler decided to stop making shots. Nittany Lions up 14 with six minutes left. Pain. 2022 CBB Record: 2-1?

Gonzaga plays as fast as anyone and may have sucked Michigan State into their game, but the Spartans kept up just fine. A.J. Hoggard showed he could run an offense by getting into the paint and making smart passes. If Tschiebwe is out, I expect another run-and-gun game, although it won't be on a boat this time and both teams should be able to shoot the three a little more effectively. Kentucky/Michigan State over 141.5

I haven't watched Duke or Kansas play yet this season. Both of them have so many new faces and I won't pretend I'm watching their high school or AAU tape. No angle here, just watch and enjoy.

A few incredibly lucky bounces down the stretch. The Dog of the Day covers the spread. 2022 CBB Record: 3-0.

Last and probably least, we have Dayton and UNLV. Vegas always wins, but probably not here. They don't return a single starter from last year, They don't have an established scorer on the roster, scoring just 66 points against Southern University. They did score 88 against Incarnate Ward, but there's no way that's a real school.

Dayton is long, athletic, and excels at perimeter defense. They won't give up easy looks in the paint and UNLV doesn't have the shooters to extend the defense. They're shooting an abysmal 27% from beyond the arc this season. Dayton has kept it slow this season and will likely continue to do so. They bring back most of the team last season that ranked 309 in the country in pace. Unless UNLV finds some shooters, they'll play this one in the 50s. UNLV under 64.5