College Hoops Picks - November 19, 2022

Holy hell. UCLA was the easiest win of my entire life. That sentence was written about 10 minutes before UCLA even tipped off. That's how confident I was. 2022 CBB Record: 9-0

Any time two teams play on a neutral court, I lean towards the under. Sometimes you might get soft rims in a gym, but we can't ever count on that. Providence and Miami play this afternoon in Uncasville, Connecticut, wherever that is. It could be a shooter's gym where everything seems to fall, who knows?

What we do know, is that Providence and Miami both are yet to play any real competition. Like many teams this season, they've played "buy games" against weaker competition to pad the resumé before the season really kicks off. They've each scored over 75 points per game, but looking at where those points came from is important. Many of those points have come off turnovers, second-chance points, and high-percentage looks. Providence scored fifty (50!) points in the paint against Northeastern. You can have players who are good at getting to the rim, but you don't get 50 points in the paint that way. You get to 50 by simply being the bigger team. There's no massive size advantage here.

I wouldn't put Miami or Providence in the category of elite defensive teams, but they both have higher-caliber athletes than their previous opponents. Easy buckets won't be as frequent, and defensive effort will be a lot higher in a power-five matchup.

Despite their athletic advantages, both teams have been content to play in the half-court. That could change here against real competition, but all signs point to this one being played without a ton of pace. Back to the under on Saturday afternoon. Miami/Providence Under 141.5

I want to make more picks than just one, but the way these tournaments are set up makes it hard. Lines aren't coming out until very late at night, and by that point, I'll have had far too many Coors Lights to make good decisions. More to come in the regular season.

Addendum: UCLA didn't cover three. Collapse down the stretch. I thought the experience of the Bruins would help, but they got rattled by the full-court press. Terrence Shannon Jr. absolutely took over. Not much you can do about 8/9 from three. Illinois is for real. 2022 CBB Record: 8-1