College Hoops Picks - December 27, 2022

The holidays may be coming to a close, but that's no reason to be upset. Sunset is getting later, global warming is keeping it somewhat bearable in the Northeast, and yesterday was the last day without a college basketball game until March 15th. Also, I'm 15-3 on the season. I just started a new job, but I probably don't even need it based on how well this is going. I hope my boss doesn't read this. He knows this page exists. 2022 CBB Record: 15-3

Huge slate on Wednesday. Lots to cover. First up, back to Mississippi State for the second blog in a row. This time, they host Alabama. The Bulldogs have struggled lately, dropping their first game of the season to Drake after struggling to put away both Jackson and Nichols State. I get the sense that Chris Jans' team isn't quite who many think they are after the first couple of months of the season.

The logic of the bet here is a little strange but bear with me. Alabama turns the ball over on almost 22% of their possessions. They play a frenetic style, which lends itself to turning the ball over, but 22% is still far too high for a team of that caliber. State, on the other hand, has won with its defense all season long. They turn other teams over, slow the pace, and force games to be played in the 50s and 60s.

Here's where the logic gets weird. I'm taking Mississippi State under 68.5. With the Bulldogs being the home team and their ability to turn opponents over, I expect them to control the tempo of this game. The two team totals are virtually identical, within four points of one another, so I'm taking the State under because picking against Alabama's offense is generally inadvisable. They could turn the game into a track meet, in which case they'll win by ten plus. If you think that's the case, take Bama. The Bulldogs only have one player averaging in the double digits, and he's a 6'11" post player. If they're playing through him, it's not on the fast break.

Movie review: Avatar: The Way of Water was sweet. I'm still not convinced it was a movie based on how real it looked. I want to live with the blue people. 4/5 stars.

Next up, another SEC matchup. I'm going to go against my own cardinal rule here and pick a team that hasn't played a true road game, and I almost know it's going to bite me in the ass. Kentucky is traveling to Missouri, where they're just two-point favorites.

I don't trust Kentucky's offense, especially in their first road contest. I do trust Oscar Tshiebwe against a Mizzou team with next to no size and serious defensive rebounding issues. I don't have props available as I write this, but Tshiebwe could finish the game with 20+ rebounds. I haven't watched the Tigers play a full game yet this season, but I did see them get run out of their own gym against Kansas. Kentucky has athletes of the same caliber and is actually shooting the three fairly well. They have their problems, but they should be able to go into Missouri and come out with a win. Kentucky -2.0

Random thought: If Patrick Star voiced over a Mac Jones "intraception" I would probably throw away my TV and never watch football again.

I didn't set out to do this but it looks like I'm going with a full SEC card on Wednesday. This pick is incredibly similar to the first, given that I'm taking another home team under. This time, it's LSU who are listed as five-point underdogs against Arkansas. Unlike my pick in the Mississippi State game, this one is more about Arkansas' defense. The Razorbacks are ninth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per KenPom and are great at turning teams over.

LSU is still a relatively "new team" so to speak and hasn't really been tested yet this season. Their best win is a neutral site game against Wake Forest, outside of that, they haven't beaten anyone of note, and they're only averaging 72 points per game. I don't think they have the talent to keep pace with Arkansas. LSU under 69.5