Elite Eight Prop Bet - March 26

What's up everybody,

I'm back with another college basketball pick for elite eight Saturday. My previous blog did okay, 1-1 in basketball and 0-1 in soccer after that absolute nightmare of a game from Italy. I apologize to all of my loyal North Macedonian readers for making fun of your country last time, you're much more than just North Greece.

Now, let's get to some (one) picks.

Mark Williams Over 12.5 Points vs. Arkansas

Like many others, I hate Duke; I think I made that abundantly clear when I picked against them on Thursday. Coach K truly does think he's the most important man in college basketball but I'm turning the corner on hating Duke and just accepting the fact that they're winning the national championship. If they win today, rest assured they'll end up playing against St. Peter's in the final four, and beating Miami in the national championship. Texas Tech was the best shot to take him out, and it's gone. Storybook ending for ole Coach K and the Blue Devils, just like he drew it up.

Putting my sadness about Duke walking their way to a national title aside, I do have a pick here that I love. If you haven't been watching Duke, your knowledge of them is probably limited to Paolo Banchero. Paulo is a top five NBA prospect and is the star of the Blue Devil lineup. This isn't about Paulo though, it's about Mark Williams. Williams is a 7'1' monster who plays center for Duke. He averages almost three blocks a game, playing only about 23 minutes per game. He's incredibly efficient, not shooting the ball a ton but taking high percentage shots when he does.

On the other side of the ball, Arkansas severely lacks size. They play great defense, but the interior is an area where they lack depth. Jaylin Williams is known as one of the best interior defenders in the country, leading the SEC in charges taken. He'll likely be matched up against our man Mark Williams, leaving Paolo to be guarded by... I'm not quite sure. I sometimes question his handle, but against a much smaller defender I don't think he should have a problem getting into the lane.

College basketball has an offensive foul problem. Guys are flying in to take charges any time they see someone coming down the lane because they know they can get the offensive foul call. I personally hate it and don't think taking a help defense charge is how defense should be played. Nobody takes more charges than Arkansas' Jaylin Williams. I'm not a Coach K fan by any means, but he is one of the best to ever do it, and knows you need to work the refs to win tight games. I'm sure he'll be on the refs from the opening tip about block/charge calls. I'm not saying the refs listen to him, but I wouldn't be surprised to see what's normally called a charge go the other way, at least once.

Back to Duke, they score in the paint at one of the highest clips in the country. Mark Williams is a true bruiser, playing with back to the basket in the post; outside of him, many of the points are coming from easy looks on layups from a driving Banchero or Jeremy Roach. They're also great at dropping the ball off when help comes, Banchero and Roach each average four assists per game. Arkansas is going to have a size problem on their hands and will need help on the interior to stay in the game. Jaylin Williams is going to continue to try to take charges and get Duke into foul trouble. Coach K will have his guys prepared for that; look for Duke to make the extra pass often and find easy looks underneath the basket. He also shoots 75% from the line, not bad for a seven-footer. I like Williams to be fed early on in this one and take advantage of his size to score in the 15 point range.