Final Four Picks - April 2

Mark Williams is dead to me. How is it possible to have ten points at the end of the first half and only score twelve points total? He didn't miss a single shot from the field, but he did miss a free throw. Why not be a little more selfish and get a couple extra shots up, Mark? Gosh. Duke moves on to the final four and my pick loses, a real double whammy. Hopefully I can find a few winners in the Final Four before we enter the grind that is baseball season.

Villanova Under 64.5 vs. Kansas

Everything about this game screams to take Villanova with the four points. I won't list out all the trends in this blog, but you can read them all here. Here's my thinking: Kansas is one of the most high flying, explosive offenses in the country. Villanova plays grind it out basketball, slowing the pace and posting up their guards at an annoying race. Jay Wright is an outstanding coach and has been phenomenal in big games. If the Wildcats are going to win this game, Wright knows it's not going to be a high-scoring affair. I would be absolutely shocked if Villanova came out and pushed the tempo. They don't have the athletes to play the Jayhawks' high speed game, and they definitely don't have the depth either, especially with their second leading scorer Justin Moore out.

I like Kansas a lot in this spot even with all the trends in Villanova's favor, but four points is too many for me to give in a final four game. They defend the three well, running teams off the line and holding them to a low percentage from beyond the arc. Nova relies on the three to score, getting very little offensively close to the basket. The Jayhawks also rebound the ball well and shouldn't allow too many second chance points. They've got experience in David McCormack, Mitch Lightfoot, and Ochai Ogbaji; not to mention Remy Martin, one of the most impressive players in the tournament.

About 75 words ago, I said four points was too many for me to lay in a final four game. Looking at the Kansas roster and seeing the depth, experience, and overall talent level, I've convinced myself. Kansas -4.0 also has my official endorsement as a final four play, not that that holds any weight.

UNC +4.0 vs. Duke

This is the most anticipated game in college basketball history, or at least my lifetime, and I can already tell you exactly how it plays out. UNC destroyed Coach K on Coach K night, but K gets his shot at redemption on Saturday night. Losing this game truly isn't an option for Duke, the rivalry is virtually over if they lose. There's no way to win a Duke vs. UNC argument when UNC can come back by saying they won K's last game at home and ended his career in the first final four meeting between the two. There's nothing you can say to refute that, even as a delusional Duke fan who probably didn't even go there and also roots for the Lakers, Cowboys, and Yankees.

You're probably wondering why I'm taking the Tar Heels here. Don't get me wrong, Duke will absolutely win this game; Duke moneyline is the safest bet in sports, it's basically free money. There's no way this game is a blowout though, the game will end in the most dramatic fashion to end the Coach K era of the UNC/Duke rivalry. UNC will likely lead most of the game, maybe even opening up a double digit lead, but Duke will come roaring back and have the ball with a chance to win the game. Who do you give the final shot to? Paulo Banchero? Jeremy Roach? Maybe A.J. Griffin? No, you give the ball to the most deserving member of the team: Michael Savarino. Savarino has worked hard to make the Duke team and is the perfect guy to take the final shot. If there's one guy who would take one for the team, it's Savarino. He displayed his willingness to do whatever it takes by being charged with a DWI for getting behind the wheel inebriated in order to get Banchero wherever he needed to be. Not to mention, Duke is literally in his blood. Literally. Coach K is his grandfather but don't be fooled, he earned all 29 of the minutes he played this year and the scholarship he was given. Savarino takes the game winning shot, drills it, and Duke wins by two, giving K the ending he's always dreamed of, and more importantly, giving UNC the cover.