March Madness - March 18

People say watching basketball all day is easy. I'm here to tell you it isn't. Watching basketball from noon to midnight was a grind yesterday and it will be a grind today, especially when my first pick is the first game of the day. San Diego State collapsed last night to lose my first official pick, but that's just march madness for ya.

Ohio State Pick 'Em vs. Loyola-Chicago

Picking against Sister Jean and Loyola-Chicago is likely a one-way ticket to hell. I'm not overly familiar with the bible but I assume gambling is a sin. I don't see Sister Jean finding her way to my blog any time soon so I think I'll be able to get away with this.

Loyola-Chicago is a trendy "upset" pick much like South Dakota State yesterday, especially given their recent history in the tournament, but this isn't the same team that made those tournament runs. Porter Moser is gone and the Ramblers' struggled through parts of the regular season before winning the conference tournament to punch their ticket to the big dance. While they play the same style as those other teams: hard defense and methodical offense, the overall talent level isn't as high. There's no Cameron Krutwig to pretend like he's Nikola Jokic and throw seemingly impossible passes and there's no Clayton Custer for me to want to punch in the face. The name is the same, the team isn't.

The Buckeyes are healthy for the first time in a long time and while I worry that it might take some time to find their rhythm, I think the overall talent level is too high for the Missouri Valley champions to overcome. Zed Key and Kyle Young are both available for OSU and give Chris Holtmann a lot of versatility, especially with the emergence of Joey Brunk as a solid role player in their absence. I don't mean to bash Loyola because they are a very good team and deserve a spot in the tournament, but E.J. Liddell and Malachi Branham will be the two best players on the court.

The Ramblers do a good job of getting to the rim and don't settle for jumpers but Liddell is one of the best shot blockers in college basketball and should be able to limit the number of uncontested layups. This game will likely be frustrating to watch and could be a complete disaster given Ohio State's inconsistency, but I like them to put it together and get past the legendary Sister Jean, once and for all.

P.S. I haven't established what "the line" is for content on this blog, but I think talking about Sister Jean's mortality is close to it. A first round exit for the Ramblers might actually kill her though, just saying.

Braden Norris over 10.5 Points

I don't like betting player props against the side I'm on, and I definitely don't like having two picks on the first game of the day, especially after a twelve hour college basketball marathon the day prior. Player prop overs typically aren't a winning formula either, but here we are. I like to write about what I don't like to do, ignore my own advice, and lose as a result.

Ohio State isn't a great defensive team outside of E.J. Liddell in the middle of the floor. Loyola knows they aren't the best offensive team, so they'll likely look to take the path of least resistance and not consistently challenge Liddell at the hoop. This means a lot of three point attempts. Braden Norris shoots the three at a very solid 43.5% clip, taking about six threes a game. Ohio State allows opponents to hit the three at about 35%, not terrible, but not great either. If the Ramblers want to win this game, they likely won't try to beat OSU at the rim with their athleticism. I see Norris easily knocking down two or three long balls and getting over the 10.5 mark set. I like Ohio State to win, but Norris will definitely be a key part of the game plan for the fighting Sister-Jeans.

Chattanooga +8.0 vs. Illinois

I don't like typing the word "Chattanooga" because it looks gross on paper but it sounds great out loud. That's unimportant but it's not untrue. I like the Mocs here for a couple different reasons. The first being their graduate transfer from Kansas, Silvio De Sousa. Illinois' Kofi Cockburn is a deserving All-American but doesn't have a ton of finesse to his game. De Sousa should have the size to prevent Kofi from completely bullying him down low. He also has tournament experience and is used to the physicality of Big XII basketball so he shouldn't be completely outmatched. Outside of De Sousa, the Mocs also have size in SoCon Player of the Year Malachi Smith and Darius Banks who help on the defensive glass.

Keep in mind you're getting eight points with Chattanooga here which is a lot, especially in March. I'm not telling you to take the moneyline, I'm just saying the Mocs should be able to keep this one close. They play a slow pace, get good looks on offense, start four seniors, and don't turn the ball over. They're also the perfect team to completely blow up brackets because they're called Chattanooga. Just a gross word on paper, especially to see in the second or third round of a bracket. I like Illinois, but they're a little sloppy at times and played a lot of close games down the stretch. I try not to buy into trends too much, although its hard to ignore the fact the Illini were just 1-3 ATS on neutral courts, and 2-7 ATS with four or more days off. Give me the Mocs getting eight points here, I see this one as a tight game.