MLB Picks - April 11

Warning: I'm writing this as the Red Sox have a one run lead in the 9th inning against the Yankees, so I could end up going full tilt in the middle of a sentence. The outcome of this game will likely affect how mean my takes are, that's just a harsh reality. Anyways, I was 1-1 in my last post, the Marlins play was a little too cute. I've had a pretty good grasp on the five inning lines for my personal picks, so hopefully that continues here.

Carlos Correa over 1.5 Total Bases vs. Seattle +115

Chris Flexen takes the bump on Monday night for Seattle, and while he posted good numbers last year, I don't think he's particularly impressive. (The Red Sox won, this could have been much harsher). Flexen isn't the guy to blow you away, his fastball averages about 94 mph, hardly anything that jumps off the page in 2022. He doesn't get a ton of swings and misses, but he doesn't walk a ton of guys either. He's the definition of a "finesse pitcher". Baseball-Reference.com has a formal categorization of what a finesse pitcher is, but without going into the details, Flexen is firmly in that category.

BaseballReference also does us the liberty of showing splits for each player, including breaking out stats by finesse vs. power pitchers. Carlos Correa absolutely rakes against finesse pitchers, slashing .308/.386/.542 against them. Betting player props is tough, especially in baseball, but sometimes you gotta take your shots. The Twins' new shortstop is just 1-7 on the year with a walk and a home run, I like him to settle in against Flexen and to hit the ball hard, hopefully finding some outfield grass.

Rangers -0.5 First Five Innings vs. Rockies (-105)

Baseball is weird, dude. The Rockies took two out of three from the Dodgers on opening weekend. The Dodgers that won over 100 games last year and added Freddie Freeman - yeah, those Dodgers. They head to Texas today to take on the Rangers, who are coming off a very entertaining series with the Blue Jays.

I'm basically just taking this as a let down spot for the Rockies. Adjusting from hitting in Colorado to hitting at a normal altitude is difficult; pitches behave differently at altitude and pitchers gameplan accordingly. Taylor Hearn is starting for the Rangers, he has a good fastball, and a slider that could be useful. He isn't anything special, but we don't need lights out pitching, just a one read lead after five innings. On the other side, the Rockies give the ball to Austin Gomber. Gomber has a peculiar split, actually pitching considerably better in Coors than away from it last year, his ERA being over four runs greater on the road. The Rangers showcased their revamped offense against the Jays this weekend, scoring 23 runs over the three games against better pitching. I like the Rangers to jump on Gomber and get out to an early lead.