MLB Picks - April 15

Mets -1.0 F5 vs. Diamondbacks (-105)

I'm in love with the first five inning bet. There are a million different ways you can play it; favorites, underdogs, or just straight picks all have their merits. Personally, I tend to focus on the starting pitchers to identify potential picks and go from there.

Taking a team minus a full run is kind of stupid, in that you need be winning by two runs after five - two runs is truly more than it seems as strange as that sounds. I'm taking the full run because I don't care if I push the bet, and if they're tied or losing after five it's a loss either way. I'll lay the full run, hope the Mets have a rally and get the better odds that come with it.

As I said, I focus on starting pitching when making these picks. Chris Bassitt had a great first start for the Mets, but I still don't think he gets enough public recognition having played for the A's for almost his entire career. He's boasts an impressive strikeout rate of about 23%, while only walking hitters at about a 6% rate. I think Bassitt is a lot better than he gets credit for and will have a great outing against an incredibly mediocre D'Backs offense.

On the other side of this one, Zach Davies goes for Arizona. Davies isn't a bad pitcher, but he isn't a great one either. He can eat innings, but he won't strike a ton of guys out and has had control issues as well. Pitchers can only control so much, and striking guys out is the most effective way to prevent runs. Davies isn't one to overpower hitters and is relying on weak contact to get through innings. The Mets' lineup is more than capable and should be able to put traffic on the bases against him. All it takes is one big inning to put a few runs on the board and hopefully win this one.

Rockies -0.5 F5 vs. Cubs +100

Bare with me here, because this pick is going to be a little counter-intuitive and probably not make a ton of sense. We're taking the Rockies to win the first five innings here. I'd usually take a Rockies first five moneyline here to give the push in the event of a tie, but it's not available right now so I'll lay the half run.

This game is being played in Colorado, and as baseball fans know, the offense gets a little crazy out there. Conventional wisdom says that ground ball pitchers play better in Coors, because fly balls tend to find there way out of the ballpark more often than in other stadiums. Marcus Stroman starts for the Cubs tomorrow and is one of those ground ball pitchers that "should" succeed in Coors. What Stroman isn't however, is a strikeout pitcher, which is even more important in Colorado. If you strike guys out, the ball is never in play, and bad things can't happen. Germán Márquez, on the other hand, starts for the Rockies and will strike more guys out. He has a career whiff rate of over 25%, showing his ability to get swings and misses.

Most public bettors will likely bet on the groundball pitcher here, which should lend some value to the Rockies first five. As I said before, preventing the ball from being put in play is the best way to prevent runs, especially in Coors, and Marquez is much better than Stroman in that department. Fade the public and take the Rockies here.