MLB Picks - April 7

We are off and running on the MLB season. Before I dive into a couple of picks, I'd like to tell everyone to stop reading now, save your money, and don't bet on baseball. Baseball gambling is an absolute grind, and with so much variation you really need to stick to a system and be willing to bet on bad teams. Or you can just bet on random guys to mash home runs, that's way cooler.

Baseball is the sport I'd say I'm most knowledgable about and since I started tracking my picks last June, I'm just 57-60-2 in baseball for -1.7 units. Bullpens can cause wild variations in games, so predicting full games can be incredibly difficult. More than any other sport, I'll be picking based on odds rather than picking winners - it's all about expected value. That's not to say it's not also about expected value in other sports, but a spread is a spread and you're getting -110 odds for the most part regardless in football or basketball, so you can focus on breaking down the game more than finding the best line.

Enough rambling, let's get to some picks.

Phillies Team Total Over 4.5 (-105)

The Phillies are one of the most interesting teams in baseball coming into 2022. They were a top-half offense in 2021 and invested even more in the offense by bringing in Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos this off-season. They take on Frankie Montas and the AAA-level Oakland A's on Friday afternoon.

Wait, the Phillies play the A's on opening day? That doesn't seem right, but I digress.

Last season, the Phillies averaged 4.53 runs per game, so slightly above the number here. I don't want to buy into that number too much because baseball is so unpredictable, but it's a decent starting point. By adding Schwarber and Castellanos to a lineup already featuring Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto, we can only assume the offense will improve. It also appears they took Moneyball a little too seriously and decided that they have no need to play defense. They know they're going to need to rack up the runs to win games, especially if they're playing Schwarber in the outfield. g

On top of the Phillies' offense prowess and lack of defensive competence, Frankie Montas has struggled early in the season in years past. Although it's a small sample size, his April ERA is almost a half run higher than his career mark. It'll be a cool day on Friday with temperatures in the low 60s and the wind blowing out, which could make for a big day for the Phillies' bats. I like over 4.5 here for the Phillies on opening day.

Marlins First Five Innings +0.5 vs. Giants (-130)

John Laghezza of The Athletic wrote a great article about betting five-inning lines and how you can get an edge. The article is behind a paywall, but the gist of it is by betting a five-inning line, you can (hopefully) take the bullpen out of the game and remove some of the variations that come with it. The less you have to consider, the easier it is to come up with an expectation and compare it to the odds.

Sandy Alcantara takes the bump for the Marlins on opening day in San Francisco, he's one of the best arms in the league. I'm not saying the Marlins are good, but that's a pill you have to swallow with baseball betting. Effectively, I'm just betting on the starting pitcher here. All it takes to win this bet is a tie at the end of five innings. Logan Webb is also a phenomenal pitcher, but the Giants lineup doesn't particularly scare me. Public perception of the Marlins is likely pushing this line down, making it a good value. Alternatively, for some extra profit, you can take the Marlins F5 moneyline, although a tie after five will grade as a push rather than a win. I personally tend to err on the side of caution and take the half run with a low total - but to each their own.