MLB Preseason Picks

Major league baseball is finally back, and if you're like me, you're unreasonably excited. If you're not like me, you're wrong and you're missing out.

Futures

Bobby Witt Jr. AL Rookie of the Year +310

Picking the favorite for a future might be the lamest thing you can do but +310 odds are too good to pass up for Bobby Witt Jr. If you've never heard of Witt, he's one of the top prospects in baseball and made the Royals opening day roster, playing middle infield. The important thing here is that he made the opening day roster. Spencer Torkelson of the Tigers also made the opening day roster and will likely compete with Witt for this award, but Witt is the "more exciting" player and is much more likely to make highlight reel plays in the field to supplement his offensive resume.

Witt also has a huge thing going for him: he swings exactly like Mike Trout. Take a look at this video and tell me otherwise. Witt has a smaller leg kick, but the follow through and finish on the swing is nearly identical. I'm not the smartest guy in the room, but I think it's safe to Mike Trout is pretty good at baseball. Having the same swing as Trout doesn't mean he'll be as good as Trout, or even close to it, but it does mean that when people watch him play, they might subliminally relate the two. Any time you can be compared to Mike Trout it's a good thing, it doesn't really matter for the purposes of this award, but Witt will still make a lot of headlines this year in his rookie campaign.

Seattle Mariners to Make the Playoffs +175

This is a stupid pick. The Mariners haven't made the playoffs since 2001. History is not even a little bit on my side. The more I think about it, the more I think this pick isn't smart, but only because it's the Mariners. If the Mariners were any other team, this would be a no doubt pick for me because of the talent they have, but because they're the lovable losers, there's reason for pause. The drought has to end at some point though, right?

Looking past the fact that Seattle is Seattle, the roster is actually really good. This team won 90 games last year and there's no reason to think they can't do it again. They lost Yusei Kikuchi but they replaced him with reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. Logan Gilbert should only get better in his rookie year, the same can be said for Jarred Kelenic. Julio Rodriguez will be on the roster at some point this year, maybe even opening day, and he's one of the most exciting young prospects in baseball. They added Adam Frazier, Eugenio Suarez, and Jesse Winker; they're clearly going for it.

The additions of Ray, Winker, Suarez, and Frazier all tell me the Mariners won't be sellers. They bought major league talent to fill out the holes with their young talent coming up. The playoffs are expanded this year and the Mariners should be in the hunt for one of the extra spots. They could even beat the Astros in the division, who I think might struggle more than some people expect. It's a shame they play on the West coast, because Seattle should be one of the most fun teams to watch this year. They might pull a Mariners and find a way to miss the playoffs yet again, but I think this is the best chance they've had in a very long time.

Stat Over/Unders

I'd like to preface these next several picks by saying I truly don't recommend betting these picks unless you have some serious cash or a serious gambling problem. These picks all take six months to settle, and the odds you're getting are akin to that of betting the over on a random NBA game, the value truly isn't there. Unless you're putting down some big money, you're better off just investing your money in a mutual fund and getting a small return over that same period or something like that. I don't know, I'm not an accountant. Wait, yes I am. Now that I've made my case for why you shouldn't make these picks, here's why you should make these picks; I'll keep it short and sweet.

Rafael Devers Batting Average over .280

You'd think betting on a child is illegal, but you're allowed to bet Rafael Devers prop bets, so I guess it isn't. Devers is the best 13 year old in major league history, quickly becoming one of the best hitters in the AL. I'm a Red Sox fan so I'm biased, but look at this face, he's adorable. If the Red Sox don't extend him, I will cry. Devers has improved just about every year he's been in the league aside from the COVID shortened season; he hit .279 last year, I like him to continue to improve and hit .280 plus, it's really just a couple more hits.

Byron Buxton under 26.5 Home Runs

I love Byron Buxton. I think he's an MVP level talent. He's made of glass though, never playing a full season in his career. I hope he plays a full season and this bet loses, but I just don't see it happening. He's never even hit 20 home runs in a season in his career. If he plays a full season, he probably hits 30 home runs and I lose, but history has showed us that won't happen. I'd never root for injury, but I think this is an easy under.

Side note: if you think this is the year Buxton stays healthy, +3500 to win the MVP isn't a bad shout. He's that talented.

Joey Gallo over 36.5 Home Runs

Pretty simple logic here: Yankee Stadium is a tee ball field. Joey Gallo has hit 38 home runs in each of the last two seasons in a bigger ballpark. Yankees fans will scapegoat Gallo for everything that goes wrong with their season and if there's any public impact on this line, it's driving the number down. Gallo does what Gallo does this year for the Yanks, hitting .205 with 40 home runs, easy as that.

Noah Syndegaard under 9.5 Wins

It's a change of scenery this year for Noah Syndegaard who signed a one-year deal with the Angels this off-season. It's the first full season Thor will have since 2019 when he went 10-8 with a 4.32 ERA. Wins is a stat that I really don't believe in and hate gambling on because they're so unpredictable but this is the best way I can bet on Syndegaard to not meet expectations, at least that I've seen.

I don't think the Angels will be that good, making starting pitching wins even harder to come by. The bullpen was a disaster last year and while they added Ryan Tepera and Archie Bradley, I don't think this group will be that much better. They can blow a lead with the best of them. It's also the Angels, so the rotation will likely be injured to all hell and fall apart halfway through the season. Syndegaard will need to start 30 games to get to ten wins, and I don't see that happening. He's also sitting 93-95 with his fastball in spring training, down about two MPH since his last full season. The under is the way to go here, without a doubt.

Scott Barlow under 27.5 Saves

Mike Matheny is old school, he likes to go with one guy as his closer. That would suggest that same guy would rack up the saves. Mike Matheny also manages a bad team. The Royals really don't have a ton going for them, FanGraphs has them at 74 wins. If you look at the saves leaderboard last year and compare it to the standings, you'll find that outside of Rasiel Iglesias, and Edwin Diaz everyone over 27 saves played for a playoff team. Both Iglesias and Diaz are established closers and are getting paid to be closers. Scott Barlow is a good reliever but he isn't Iglesias or Diaz. I simply don't see enough opportunities for him to get close to 30 saves this year.

Matheny also has Amir Garrett at his disposal; Garrett throws 100 miles an hour and is willing to get in a fight at any given moment. That's the type of old school closer the Royals skipper is prone to being drawn to, Josh Staumont also has a good fastball and could step into the role as he's done in previous years. I wouldn't be surprised to see either of them vulture a few saves. I'm an analytics guy and think the save is a stupid stat that doesn't really measure anything. They're a product of opportunity and Scott Barlow isn't the type to rack them up. Maybe the Royals are this years' Mariners, winning a ton of close games and converting save opportunities, but I really don't see that happening.

Other Picks to Consider:

Here are a few other plays I like, but not enough to spend the time writing them up.

- Lucas Giolito AL Cy Young Winner +1000

- Juan Soto NL MVP +300

- Vladimir Guerrero Jr. AL MVP +400

- Myles Straw to lead the league in stolen bases +1000

Parting Words

As I was writing this, I did a lot of research, read a lot of rosters, and looked at a lot of stats to try to find winners. Part of betting a future is obviously the investment you're making as well. The season doesn't end until October, so you're tying your money up for a long time, for an outcome that is probably unlikely to actually happen, so you have to choose the bets were you have the best expected value. I spent a lot of time looking at lines on different books to find the best value, and one bet jumped out at me as great value. I personally would have sets the odds at closer to minus money because I think it's incredibly likely, but I've seen books have all the way up to +1500. Take the Boston Red Sox to win the world series. If you're already a Red Sox fan, you know this is our year, if you're not a Red Sox fan, this is your opportunity to hop on the bandwagon and be justified. Season starts Thursday, the best time to bet this was yesterday, the second best time is right this second.