Week 1 NFL Props

What's up, everyone? Football is back. I'm also back with more prop bets, but before we get into those, be sure to check out my weekly Beating The Spread article over at QBList. Those lines lock in on Monday, so they may have moved a little bit since then, but it's a peek into the genius (read: madness) that is my gambling brain. You can also check out my futures bets post and get those in at the last minute on this site.

If you're just joining me, here's a look at my sports betting performance over roughly the last year.

That's over 1,000 picks, most of which are one-unit plays. I don't know if I'm more proud of the fact that I've been able to turn a decent profit or the fact that I made that dope graph. Probably the graph. I'll update this as we go throughout the season and see if we can make some cash. 2022 record: 0-0, 0u.

Jets over/under 19.5

Joe Flacco is quarterbacking the Jets. That's really all I need to say. Betting unders is lame, but betting against Joe Flacco isn't. If Joe Flacco beats me, I can't be too upset about it, nobody is expecting that.

The Ravens were bit by the injury bug last season, with seemingly everyone on their defense going down. They're back healthy this season along with some additions to sure up the secondary. They drafted Kyle Hamilton in the first round and went out and got Marcus Williams, PFF's seventh-rated safety. On the interior, they brought in Michael Pierce, adding to an already strong unit featuring Calais Campbell and Justin Houston.

On the offensive side of the ball, the Jets are already facing injury concerns with Duane Brown out, Zach Wilson nursing a knee injury, and Mekhi Beckton done for the season. Leaning on Joe Flacco to carry the offense is a big ask, and leaning on the run game will bleed the clock and require some big plays to get to the over here. I don't see the Jets getting to 20 points on Sunday, even at home.

The Pick: Jets UNDER (-125, Bovada)

Josh Jacobs over/under 49.5 Rushing Yards

Next up, we have the Las Vegas Raiders taking on the Chargers in a rematch of that incredibly bizarre week 18 game that almost ended in a tie before the Chargers called a timeout and shot themselves in the foot. In that game, Josh Jacobs was handed the ball 26 times and racked up 132 yards. I'm not saying we'll see that exact same game again, but we could see a similar game plan from the Raiders. I wish we could see that exact same game again though, that was a lot of fun.

Josh McDaniels takes over as Raiders head coach after running the Patriots' offense for what feels like 20 years. There's a chance he wants to use his new weapons early and often, throwing the ball on every play. I wouldn't blame him if he did. If I went from Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne to Davante Adams and Darren Waller, I'd probably be pretty pass-happy. I don't think that will be the case though. Believe it or not, the Patriots have ranked in the top ten in rushing attempts in ten of twelve years dating back to 2012, even with that Tom Brady guy at quarterback. I like McDaniels to continue that trend, establishing the run and handing the ball to Jacobs frequently.

The Pick: Josh Jacobs over 49.5 Rushing Yards (-114, Bovada)

Seahawks over/under 19.5

This pick is almost the exact same as the first one. It's Geno Smith at quarterback for the Seahawks against a promising Broncos team featuring Russell Wilson. This one is less about the quarterback and more about the coaching on the Seattle side. Well, it is about the quarterback because Smith is terrible, but you don't need me to point that out. Pete Carroll is addicted to running the ball. When he had Russell Wilson, he still wanted to run the ball all the time. Now that he has Geno Smith, I can only assume he'll want to run the ball even more. Denver was middle of the pack against the run last season, but the Seahawks' offensive line is the real problem here. I'm not convinced they could block me. although I think I'm scrappy enough to give a lot of lineman trouble. I just don't see how they get to 20 points on Monday night with the ball on the ground and Geno Smith at quarterback.

The Pick: Seahawks UNDER 19.5 (-120, Bovada)

Justin Fields over/under 198.5 Passing Yards

I'm all over the 49ers in this game. I love them every which way, probably not the best sign. I didn't want to dip into the prop bets here because I already have Niners' picks, but the weather in Chicago is going to be insane with rain and high winds in the forecast. Before even seeing the forecast, I had a hard time seeing the Bears moving the ball due to the lack of offensive line talent and the 49ers' pass rush. Now, with precipitation and heavy winds added to the mix, it will likely be a steady diet of running the ball for both teams.

There are a few ways you can play this if you want to take the weather angle. I don't hate taking the Elijah Mitchell or Trey Lance rushing yards over, but I'm going to go with the Justin Fields passing yards under. Fields only got over 200 yards in four of the games he played in 2021. He doesn't have very many weapons on offense and will likely be on the run when he does drop back to pass thanks to his shoddy offensive line. I am a little worried about a backdoor over on this one with the Bears playing catch-up, but I really don't see a lot of success through the air for the Bears on Sunday.

The Pick: Justin Fields UNDER 198.5 Passing Yards (-115, Bovada)