Week 2 NFL Props

It's not easy to pick NFL prop bets. Unless you're me, in which case it's incredibly easy. A quick look at last week's prop bets:

Jets under 19.5: Joe Flacco threw the ball 59 times. 59 pass attempts from Joe Flacco has never once been a good sign

Josh Jacobs over 49.5 Rushing Yards: My analysis of this game was totally off, the Raiders were very pass-happy. Luckily, Jacobs still got over this mark. That's how hot I am.

Seahawks under 19.5: 17 points in the first half, followed by zero in the second. What a sweat.

Justin Fields under 198.5 Passing Yards: This game was played in a monsoon. There was never a chance. Easy winner.

If you can count, that's 4-0. A clean sweep of the week one board. 2022 Record: 4-0, +3.38u. Now, onto the week two picks.

Darren Waller over/under 47.5 Receiving Yards

Last week against the Chargers, Derek Carr and Davante Adams played like two kids at recess who made a deal to only throw to each other. Adams had 15 targets which he turned into ten catches and 141 yards. They moved Adams around the offense, but he mostly played out wide.

The Cardinals hosted the Chiefs last week, giving up 44 points in the loss. Patrick Mahomes spread the ball around, with seven different receivers and tight ends having at least one reception. Where they had the most success, however, was over the middle of the field. Mahomes completed 13 of 15 pass attempts between the numbers for 176 yards, getting whatever he wanted in that area of the field.

Where does Darren Waller operate? You guessed it: over the middle. Almost 40% of Waller's 2021 targets came between the numbers and five of six targets in week one. Josh McDaniels is a great offensive mind, and will likely be targeting that weak spot in the Cardinals' defense. Starting safety Jalen Thompson hasn't practiced this week either, further weakening the Arizona pass defense.

With a total of 51.5, oddsmakers are expecting a high-scoring game, likely featuring lots of passing. I like the Raiders to attack the Cardinals over the middle of the field with Darren Waller seeing plenty of action.

The Pick: Darren Waller over 47.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Ja'Marr Chase over/under 77.5 Receiving Yards

This is a dumb pick. It's probably a super public pick. That isn't going to stop me. Look at these highlights from the last time Ja'Marr Chase matched up with Trevon Diggs.

That's all I need to see. The Cowboys' pass rush does scare me some, but Chase also has the ability to catch a quick slant and take it to the house from anywhere on the field. Joe Burrow will find Chase early and often on Sunday. I wouldn't be surprised if he goes for over 100.

The Pick: Ja'Marr Chase over 77.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Geno Smith over/under 207.5 Passing Yards

The last pick was probably dumb. This pick is probably a trap. It's hard to draw conclusions from the 49ers' first game, given that it was played in nearly unplayable conditions. I mean Solder field looked like a swamp. Or maybe a marsh. Perhaps even a bog. Regardless of the ecosystem, it wasn't good for playing football.

The Seahawks, on the other hand, are coming off a huge home win against their former franchise quarterback and are now tasked with coming into San Francisco to play their divisional rivals. Geno Smith played a great half of football before turning back into the Geno Smith we know and love. He finished the game with 195 passing yards and two touchdowns. He also had an awesome line after the game: "they wrote me off, I ain't write back though". I don't think that really makes sense, but it sounds cool and you get the idea.

I'm going to do something stupid and write Geno Smith off. I don't expect him to write back, but if he does I'll immediately flip this pick. I just don't see how he gets more passing yards than he did last week. The Seahawks will have their hands full with the 49ers' defensive line, led by Nick Bosa. Much like Justin Fields last week, Geno Smith will need to hit a few big plays to get over 200 yards, and I don't think he has it in him. I will tweet this at him, and if he tweets back I'm taking the over, just for the record.

The Pick: Geno Smith UNDER 207.5 Passing Yards, (-115, DraftKings)

Deebo Samuel over/under 36.5 Rushing Yards

Same game, other side of the aisle. I think people are overrating the Seahawks for the win, forgetting that the Broncos fumbled the ball twice on the goal line. Those aren't really earned stops, they're really just plain luck. The Niners' offense should also be much more composed than the Broncos were, given that it isn't a road primetime game in Seattle.

It may not seem like it because they won the game, but the Seahawks had very little answer for the Broncos' running game on Monday night. Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams averaged more than five yards a carry, they just couldn't punch it into the endzone. Luckily for us, this bet doesn't require a touchdown, although it wouldn't surprise me to see Deebo find the endzone.

With the line at just 36.5 yards, he really only needs six or seven carries to get to the mark. With Elijah Mitchell out, there should be more opportunity for Samuel, which he should be able to convert into serious yardage.

The Pick: Deebo Samuel over 36.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)