Week Eight NFL Props

Another week in the books, another profitable week. I think I've found my wheelhouse and know what to look for, which means I'm due for a horrible week. Here's a look at last week's picks so I can remind you how great I am.

Hunter Renfrow under 40.5 Receiving Yards: I was right about the game script and how much the Raiders would be running the ball. I was wrong about the depth of Renfrow's targets. Just three catches, but a couple of big ones to push this one over.

JuJu Smith-Schuster over 4.5 Receptions: JuJu's best game in the past few years. Seven catches and over 100 yards. Might come back to this one down the line.

Kenneth Walker III over 70.5 Rushing Yards: Not even a sweat. I think he hit the over in the third quarter. He averaged over seven yards a touch and had over 20 touches. Never a doubt about this one.

Two for three as the prop train keeps rolling. Almost halfway through the season, let's see if I can keep it up. 2022 Record: 13-5, +6.18u

Raheem Mostert over/under 66.5 Rushing Yards

Over the past few weeks, I've found my stride on these middling rushing yard totals. Last week I hit on Travis Etienne with ease, as well as the week before with Rhamondre Stevenson. This week we turn to Raheem Mostert against the porous Lions' run defense.

I could see that geek trying to toy with the Lions by running unnecessarily complex plays, and going for style points to stick it to Dan Campbell. Campbell is exactly the type of guy who probably bullied McDaniel as a child, and McDaniel seems like the type to want revenge. I do believe McDaniel is a good coach though, and a good coach takes the path of least resistance. The Lions offer very little resistance when it comes to running the ball.

The Dolphins are three-and-a-half-point favorites despite playing on the road. If Vegas is right, and they typically are, it should be a game script that allows Miami to run the ball. Mostert is dealing with a knee injury, but if he's ready to play, he should see at least double-digit attempts. He's consistently over 60% of the team's attempts; aside from injury, there's no reason for the Dolphins to look elsewhere with their carries. 15 carries for 90 yards isn't out of the realm of possibility.

The Pick: Raheem Mostert OVER 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Wan'Dale Robinson over/under 41.5 Receiving Yards

I don't know that there's a pick I've liked more thus far this season. Wan'Dale Robinson is finally healthy and had somewhat of a breakout game last week (Six catches, 50 yards). He doesn't stand out on the field, given his small frame. He's just 5'8" but has 4.4 speed. He's operating out of the slot and seeing a target on almost 28% of his routes. Buyer beware as it's a small sample size, but the Giants looked to get him the ball frequently last week. It was his first week with a full workload and he ran routes on 80% of his snaps, getting the ball thrown his way seven times. If that usage keeps up, 42 yards should be no problem.

On top of the newfound usage for Robinson, the Seahawks have a tackling problem. Tackling is important in football. I never played football, but I'm pretty sure learning how to tackle is like day three. If you can't tackle, you're gonna have a hard time getting stops. Seattle has surrendered over 1,000 yards after the catch this season, second-most in the league. Against Jacksonville, Robinson's average depth of target was incredibly low at 1.9 yards. That's not necessarily a bad thing though. With the Seahawks' shoddy tackling, designed screens could easily turn into big gains.

Also, the Seahawks are favored here. Oddsmakers have been wrong on the Giants time and time again this season, but it's not a stretch to think the Giants will be playing from behind at some point. Playing from behind could mean an extra catch and push this one over.

The Pick: Wan'Dale Robinson OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Trevor Lawrence over/under 215.5 Passing Yards

This game is at 9:30 in the morning behind a paywall on ESPN+. Not gonna lie, I'm not going to watch it. I don't have anything better to do, but I certainly won't be paying to watch the Broncos play football. I have to contemplate watching the Broncos for free, let alone spending my hard-earned money to do so.

Like everyone else, I make fun of the Broncos. They actually do play really good defense, especially considering how often they're on the field. If you pay for The Athletic, take a look at this article about the Broncos' pressure looks on defense. They do some really cool stuff. For those who can't access the article, the gist of the scheme is that Denver is very good at showing pressure, blitzing just four, but forcing the running back to stay in to block, leaving fewer receivers out on routes.

Trevor Lawrence has all the talent in the world, but he's not a complete NFL quarterback just yet. He can make all the throws, but he still makes poor decisions and struggles against pressure. For all the negative press Nathaniel Hackett's squad has received this year, there's no denying the defense has been very good. They should be able to confuse Lawrence and lock up the receivers all morning over in London.

The Pick: Trevor Lawrence UNDER 215.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Cleveland Browns over/under 1.5 Field Goals Made

Our last pick of the week takes us over to Cleveland. The Bengals are a road favorite, but I actually like the Browns in this spot. Cincinnati struggles to stop the run, and as we all know, Kevin Stefanski loves to run the ball. I'm not picking the Browns, because spreads are for squares and the lines are too sharp. Instead, I'll take the Browns to make at least two field goals.

The spread is small enough that the Browns shouldn't need to chase points. NFL coaches have gotten crazy as of late, but if the game is tight field goals should be an option. The Browns' run game should be enough to move the ball, although the Bengals have tightened up in the red zone. Cincy doesn't have any real threats in the red area, and Cade York is a promising young kicker. He's had some hiccups, but I'll take over 1.5 at plus money every day of the week.

The Pick: Browns OVER 1.5 Field Goals Made (+110, DraftKings)