Week Five NFL Props

What's up everyone, back again after a week off due to me being busy or something. Pretty sure I was 2-2 the last time I did this. I won't go over week three's picks because so much has changed since then and I'm lazy. 2022 Record: 9-3, +4.73u

Rhamondre Stevenson over/under 53.5 Rushing Yards

Picking a Patriots' running back to succeed is like my parents picking a favorite child. You go with the one listed second on the depth chart. Actually though, it's anyone's best guess as to who will do the bulk of the work for the Patriots in a given week, so I'm going with the guy with the lower total.

As always, New England will want to control the tempo of the game, keeping the ball on the ground, especially with the rookie Bailey Zappe at quarterback. Detroit is allowing over five yards per carry this season, while Rhamondre Stevenson is averaging almost five per attempt. He's also increased his attempts in each game this year, from eight in the first contest to 14 last week against Green Bay. Assuming the game script allows the Patriots to run the ball, and it should, Stevenson should see the ball at least ten times which he could easily turn into 55 yards.

The Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson OVER 53.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Curtis Samuel over/under 4.5 Receptions

I consistently make picks I don't enjoy when I write these. As a rule, betting over 4.5 receptions for most receivers should be a no-no. Five is a lot, even if it feels fairly low. Another decent rule would be to not bet on a Carson Wentz receiver, that shouldn't need any explanation. As I tend to do, I'm ignoring my own advice because that's where my research took me.

Curtis Samuel is having a resurgence of a season, leading the Commanders in both targets and receptions. He's playing almost exclusively out of the slot, where he'll likely be matched up with Titans' corner Roger McCreary. McCreary has been picked on a lot this year, allowing 18 receptions on 22 targets over the first four weeks of the season. When playing zone in particular, McCreary has been targeted 12 times with all 12 balls being caught. Offensively, Samuel has feasted against zone coverage, finding the soft spots in the zone consistently to the tune of 22 catches for 180 yards.

Samuel has gone over four catches in three of his first four games this season, with the lone game going under coming last week against the Cowboys and their ferocious pass rush. The Titans don't pose as much of a threat on the defensive line, with a 31% pressure rate which they convert into sacks just 16% of the time. The veteran Commanders' receiver is set up well for a big day if Carson Wentz is semi-competent with the football.

The Pick: Curtis Samuel over 4.5 Receptions (-115, DraftKings)

49ers/Panthers First Half Over Under 19.5

A west coast team coming East in the early window tends to lead to some ugly games. The 49ers' style of play should be one that travels well, but offenses often struggle in these games aside from play style. That's not backed by numbers at all, it's just something I'm saying. It might be true based on the numbers, but I don't know how to nor do I care to pull those up. I'm just going to blindly believe it.

If this first half wants to get over the total, it's all on the 49ers. The Panthers' offense is abysmal. There's no need for anyone else to pile on Baker Mayfield, it's been well-documented how much he's struggled this year. I want to root for Mayfield because he is such a character, but his schtick is really tough to watch when he's playing so poorly. The Niners also haven't allowed a first-half touchdown yet this season. While they do have great personnel on defense, I personally believe it's also a reflection of great game-planning. I also find it incredibly unlikely that Matt Rhule outcoaches Kyle Shanahan in this one. I'll even say I think Rhule gets fired if the Panthers lose this one.

For the 49ers, they'll likely stick to their DNA and keep the ball on the ground often in this one keeping the clock moving. Neither team plays too much hurry up, so there shouldn't be too many possessions to run the score up. 19.5 is a low total, but I could easily see this score being ten to nothing at the end of the half.

The Pick: 49ers/Panthers First Half UNDER 19.5 (-110, DraftKings)