Week Seven NFL Props

What's up everyone, I'm back with more picks after another weekend off. I actually wrote up one pick (Adam Thielen over yards; winner) but never finished making the post and then had to go run a marathon because I'm an elite athlete. If you picked Jake Roy over 26.15 miles ran, you'd have won yourself some cash. Not a big deal though. Anyways, I'm still crushing the prop bet game. 2022 Record: 11-4, +5.41u

Juju Smith Schuster over/under 4.5 Receptions

JuJu Smith-Schuster is a very controversial character. He blew up when he first entered the league, and then started doing TikTok dances before games and being a little too involved off the field for how good he actually is. I think people saw a little too much JuJu and turned on him pretty quickly. Despite the annoying TikTok dances and odd persona, he's a pretty solid receiver.

For some reason, teams have played a lot of man-to-man against the Chiefs. It hasn't worked particularly well. The Bills' tried it and kept the score low, but Patrick Mahomes still threw for over 300 yards. The Raiders and Chargers tried it as well; Mahomes threw for six touchdowns and no interceptions against them.

The 49ers, however, already play a ton of zone coverage and are banged up in the secondary. I highly doubt they come out in man-to-man with the lack of depth they have. That means Mahomes may dink and dunk his way down the field. Travis Kelce is the obvious choice to be the beneficiary, but over 6.5 receptions is a high number and Fred Warner is a great tight-end defender. In the two games the Chiefs have seen a lot of zone, Smith-Schuster has had at least five receptions. His average depth of target is just 7.3 yards, most of his work has come over the short middle part of the field. 4.5 is still a little higher than I'd like, but he should get at least six or seven targets on Sunday.

The Pick: JuJu Smith-Schuster OVER 4.5 Receptions (-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)

Kenneth Walker III Over/Under 70.5 Rushing Yards

I wish I was named Jake Roy the third. That would be pretty sick. If I have a son, maybe I'll name him Jake Roy the third. I'd name him Jake Roy Jr, but then I'd have to wait a long time and hope that he carries it on by going with Jake Roy III, so I'll skip junior and go straight for the third. I haven't looked into Kenneth Walker III's family tree, but I have to assume he was preceded by two Kenneth Walkers. I digress.

The Seahawks' offense is somehow good enough to keep them in games. They're just five-point underdogs on the road at Los Angeles. The game script should be good enough for them to keep the ball on the ground with their rookie running back. The Chargers have a suspect run defense and are generally pretty banged up on defense. Fifteen carries should easily turn into 7o yards for Walker. He breaks tackles at an absurd rate and there's nobody else in the backfield to steal the ball from him. He had just about all of the carries on Sunday against the Cardinals. Easy over here.

The Pick: Kenneth Walker III OVER 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Hunter Renfrow Over/Under 40.5 Receiving Yards

Blindly betting player prop unders could actually be a viable strategy. Look at this:

Okay, blindly betting them isn't a good idea, but you can see what I mean. The only very profitable categories are passing touchdown, receptions, and rushing yard unders. A smart person would look at this chart and not bet at all, both overs and unders are down a combined time 700 units. A dumb person would look at this and continue to bet overs. I'm somewhere in the middle, so after taking a couple overs to start the week, I'll go with an under.

On the season, Hunter Renfrow is gaining just over one yard per route run. Even when he had seven receptions in week two, he only managed to gain 59 yards. He's your stereotypical white guy, chain moving, slot receiving that works in between the numbers and runs underneath routes. He's projected to square off with Desmond King II, the Texans' veteran slot corner who's quietly put together a nice season. Darren Waller is out, but Davante Adams and Mack Hollins are both getting targets. Between the competition for targets and Renfrow's 3.7 yard average depth of target, I don't see Renfrow racking up the yards.

The Raiders are coming off the bye with just one win in their first four games. Even if they're out of playoff contention already, this is a must win game for Josh McDaniels to prove he's a competent head coach. They're favored by seven points and should have a lead, allowing them to run the ball as much as they please. The Raiders have thrown the ball as much as anyone, but mostly out of necessity. When they play with a lead, they run the ball about half the time. I don't see a ton of targets going around to get Renfrow over the market set here.

The Pick: Hunter Renfrow UNDER 40.5 Receiving Yards

Bonus Pick

As always, I'll state my bias ahead of time. I am a Tottenham fan. I don't recommend it. We win just enough to convince ourselves they're good, but never enough to win a trophy. Spurs play host to Newcastle United on Sunday at 11:30 am. It's the perfect appetizer for seven hours of commercial-free football.

The reasoning here is simple enough. Tottenham is coming off a tough loss to Manchester United. Tottenham is playing at home. Tottenham is the better side. Newcastle is without Allan Saint-Maximin, Joelinton, and Isak. Antonio Conte should have Tottenham up for the match and they should come away with three points.

There are a couple of ways to play this one from a gambling perspective. First, you could take Tottenham +110 on the three-way moneyline. In that case, you need a Tottenham win to win the bet, a loss or a draw is a loss according to the sportsbook. The other way is to take the quarter ball line (Tottenham -0.5, 0.0). If you go this route, half of your money goes on Tottenham -0.5, the other half goes on Tottenham 0.0. Those are just straight-up spreads, so a Tottenham win would win both bets, a draw would push one and lose one, and a loss would lose both. I tend to be risk-averse, so I'll take the quarter ball line.

The Pick: Tottenham -0.5, 0.0 (-122, DraftKings)