Week Three NFL Props

I think I'm the world's best NFL prop bettor. I don't know how to substantiate that claim but I'm gonna go ahead and make it anyways. I can't lose. Except for one time. Take a quick look at last week's picks to see what I learned, even though I clearly already know enough.

Darren Waller over 47.5 Receiving Yards: Got a little snippy at the end, but managed to squeak over the mark set. Winner.

Geno Smith under 207.5 Passing Yards: Almost had a back door cover with Geno throwing for 50ish yards in a garbage time drive, stayed under though. Winner.

Deebo Samuel over 36.5 Rushing Yards: Hit this one on literally two carries. Winner.

Ja'Marr Chase over 77.5 Receiving Yards: Okay don't bet on the Bengals receivers when they're facing a game wrecker like Micah Parsons. Not a winner.

That's three wins and one loss if you're keeping up at home. Get hot stay hot. 2022 Record: 7-1, +4.99u

Miles Sanders over/under 63.5 Rushing Yards

It's still early in the season, but I love what I've seen from the Eagles thus far. They won a shootout with the Lions, who are better than expected, and a low-scoring affair with the Vikings. Kirk Cousins turns into a pumpkin on Monday Night Football, but it was impressive nonetheless. I've been gassing up the Eagles a lot this year and assure you there is no bias there.

The Commanders have struggled to stop the run this year, while the Eagles are built on running the ball. Between Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders, it's a difficult rushing attack to stop. Sanders has always had injury issues but now that he's healthy he's showing he's one of the best runners in the league. He came into week three with the third most yards after contact in the league. Washington is getting bullied in the trenches, giving up over 100 rushing yards in each of their first two games, even against the Jaguars. The Jaguars shouldn't be bullying anyone, they should be the ones getting stuffed in a locker.

Philadelphia should have whatever they want offensively on Sunday. I'd take the team total over, but 27 is a little higher than my liking so I'll stick to the rushing yards. The Eagles are heavy road favorites in this one; they'll likely be protecting a lead and running down the clock. Look for Sanders to get plenty of work and get well over the bar set here.

The Pick: Miles Sanders OVER 63.5 Rushing Yards (-120, DraftKings)

Matthew Stafford over/under 24.5 Completions

Betting player prop overs is typically a bad strategy when it comes to props. I've been lucky to get away with it for the most part thus far this season. I'm going to continue doing it until it bites me in the ass.

Over in Arizona, the Rams are coming in to take on the Cardinals who just had a miracle win over the Raiders. Obviously, with just two games completed, sample sizes are small. Regardless, the Cardinals are blitzing with reckless abandon. Roughly 60% of snaps they're sending an extra defender at the quarterback. Having lost Chandler Jones, it makes sense that they need a little extra help getting to the QB. Matthew Stafford, however, simply chooses to disregard the blitz. Last season, he completed over 75% of his passes against the blitz for 16 touchdowns and one interception. If the Cardinals come after him like they have been other QBs this season, he'll pick them apart.

The Rams have been throwing the ball plenty, even when they were leading against Atlanta. It's hard not to throw the ball when you have Cooper Kupp. The man is always open. I see another game with a lot of passing attempts as the Rams continue to figure it out on offense.

The Pick: Matthew Stafford over 24.5 Completions (-115, DraftKings)

Packers/Buccaneers Longest Touchdown over/under 38.5 Yards

Taking the under here might not be smart with Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers under center for their respective teams. They can both drops absolute dimes. The problem is they have nobody to throw those dimes to. Chris Godwin was ruled out due to injury, Julio Jones is old and dealing with injuries, and Mike Evans is out due to suspension for the Bucs. The Packers have a stable of rookies, Allan Lazard, and an elderly Randall Cobb while Sammy Watkins is out due to injury.

These bets are tough because anyone can break one at any time, that's just football. I'm willing to bet that over the course of a season, the under on longest touchdown props is much more profitable than the over. Remember that "bomb" that Brady threw to Breshad Perriman last week? That was just 28 yards. 40-yard touchdowns happen, but not as often as you'd think.

The Pick: Longest Touchdown UNDER 38.5 Yards (-115, DraftKings)

Daniel Jones over/under 208.5 Passing Yards

It wouldn't be a Jake Roy prop bets article without a passing yards under. These bets aren't fun to root for and they can lose in a second, but they are profitable. Week one we had Justin Fields, week two we had Geno Smith, and now we have Daniel Jones. What do all of these quarterbacks have in common? They're bad. That's all.

The total for this game is set at 39 as of Saturday, so Vegas isn't expecting these two teams to get up and down the field in a hurry. Jones is yet to reach 200 yards in a game this season, while the Cowboys haven't allowed 200 passing yards yet. It's early, but the numbers matter at least a little bit. Micah Parsons is already a bonafide superstar. He has the ability to take over a game by himself. Daniel Jones has a tendency to lose his mind under pressure and will likely be dealing with Parsons early and often. The Giants have only allowed five sacks this year, but they haven't faced an edge player like Parsons. I expect a lot of running and a lot of punting from the Giants on Monday Night.

The Pick: Daniel Jones under 208.5 Passing Yards (-115, DraftKings)