Weekend Grab Bag - March 20

3-0 on the second day of March Madness is a hell of a way to bounce back. All three picks were fairly easy winners with Ohio State winning handily, Braden Norris hitting his mark with plenty of time to go, and Chattanooga staying close the entire game. Sister Jean is also still living as far as I know, so her impending death is no longer on my hands as far as I'm concerned. We've got a grab bag of picks this weekend with more March Madness and F1 returning for the 2022 season, it's a great time of the year for sports.

Side note: I've been ending my intros with "Now, let's get to some picks" since I started writing about gambling and planned on making it a tagline of sorts. I forgot to add it to the intro in my second ever post here. Off to a hot start...

Now, let's get to some picks.

Michigan +7.0 vs. Tennessee

I'm taking a bit of a gamble here by betting against one of the hottest teams in the country, but I guess I'm taking a bit of a gamble with every pick I put out, it's literally called gambling. I'm not a doctor, but I have a good feeling Devante' Jones will be back from his concussion for Michigan this afternoon. Tennessee's guards are excellent defenders, so having a senior guard to handle the ball will be huge for Michigan to stay close and cover the seven point spread.

I wouldn't say Tennessee is reliant on second chance points offensively, but it's definitely a strength of theirs. Michigan is excellent on the defensive glass, allowing just 23% of opponent's shots to be offensive rebounded. Tennessee has size in the front court, but nobody overly mobile or with the range to drag Hunter Dickinson away from the basket. Michigan weathered an early three point barrage from Colorado State on Thursday and held on for the win. Tennessee and Colorado State are similar teams to an extent, and while I don't think Juwan Howard is the best coach, he should have his guys ready to go on Saturday night. Seven points is a lot, especially for a tournament game and Rick Barnes' is a perennial choker in March. Take Michigan (or don't, you don't have to listen to me), and hope this one stays tight.

Bahrain Grand Prix Margin of Victory under 5 seconds (-135)

The Bahrain Grand Prix is the first race of the F1 season and the first race with the new car regulations. Saturday qualifying saw three teams fighting for the top spot: Red Bull, Ferrari, and Mercedes. The entire session felt like the former two teams were in control, but the lap times showed Mercedes not far behind. The teams will make adjustments tonight, and although Mercedes was third in qualifying, I wouldn't be shocked to see them pull something out of their hat as they always seem to do.

On top of a tight qualifying session with everyone showing their new cars for the "first" time, the new regulations are supposed to lead to better racing. The old cars struggled to drive in the turbulent air of a car ahead, while the new cars are supposed to be able to stay tight without destroying the tires and lead to more overtaking. Put together a tight pack at the top, cars that can follow closer without issues, and the drag reduction system and you should have a tight race on Sunday morning. Five seconds is a lot in F1, qualifying was decided by just over a tenth of a second and everyone will be sending it to try to take control in a new era of F1 racing.

Lando Norris Top 10 Finish (+135) - Bahrain Grand Prix

The logic on this pick is fairly simple: Lando Norris drove more laps in testing than anyone else. Daniel Ricciardo was out due to a positive COVID test, leaving the McLaren team to focus entirely on Norris. With new regulations this year, time inside the car is more important than ever. Over the past few seasons, Lando has shown he's a very strong driver and can hold his own on the grid, so a top ten finish should be no problem. In his first three seasons, he's never finished lower than sixth at Bahrain, so it's safe to say he's comfortable with the circuit. Even if the McLaren car isn't as competitive as it has been in recent years, and it looks to be struggling, his time on the track and overall pedigree as a driver should be enough to secure a top ten finish. There's always the risk of a crash taking him out of the race, but I think the plus odds are too good to pass up here. F1 is dope, by the way. Watch Drive to Survive on Netflix if you haven't, it's like reality TV but it's sports, which is fun for everyone.

Illinois +4.5 vs. Houston

Illinois is coming into this game off of one of the worst games of basketball I've ever watched. It felt like they really overlooked Chattanooga and almost got burned because of it. The great thing about the NCAA tournament, though, is that your last game doesn't matter; a win is a win no matter how you do it.

"They ain't played no one, Pawwwl" is a quote that comes to mind when thinking about Houston. People love to talk about how Gonzaga plays a cupcake schedule, but they at least gave themselves a gauntlet in non-conference play. Houston truly ain't played no one. Looking at their schedule, their highest rated opponents were Alabama (Loss by 1), Wisconsin (Loss by 2), and the mighty Bryant Bulldogs (Win by 67). The Bryant game was a fluke though, if those teams play 100 times Bryant wins 99 of them. Ignoring my school pride, the point here is that Houston really isn't battle tested. They're a very good team, but they aren't some sort of unbeatable juggernaut, especially without Marcus Sasser who's out for the season. Illinois isn't without their flaws, they turn the ball over more than I like and sometimes struggle when Kofi Cockburn has to come off the floor, but they're still likely the most talented team Houston has seen all season. I picked against Illinois on Friday as big favorites, but 4.5 points is just too many to pass up. Houston isn't a great free throw shooting team, even if they do lead late, the free throws may help Illinois cover the spread here. I definitely have a power conference bias, by the way.