Your 2022 NL Cy Young Winner

What's up everyone. First post in a minute, but I've got another pick for my loyal follower(s). My futures article from the pre-season doesn't look great, but I'm going back to the same well with a clearer picture now that we're almost at the all-star break.

Today, I'm talking NL Cy Young and why there's one man whose award it is to lose - Sandy Alcantara. I know, he's the favorite right now, hovering at about +125 depending on where you look and it's easy for anyone to say the favorite will win, but plus money right now is a steal. Give it two or three more weeks, four or five more starts and Sandy will be -150 and you'll be wishing you got in a long time ago.

The way I see it, there's three, maybe four contenders for the award right now. Let's start from the top.

Sandy Alcantara - Marlins (+125)

The leader in the clubhouse for the award, and for good reason. While he's not quite at the top of the league in every statistical category, he's near the top in most, and leading innings pitched by a decent margin. He's thrown 123 innings through 17 starts; that's over seven innings a start. That's the type of thing the voters love. Baseball has changed so much from even 20 years ago. Nobody goes out there and throws complete games anymore because of the wear it puts on your arm. Nobody except for Sandy. He's the closest thing to an early 2000s pitcher out there right now.

People love to hate "analytics". I could write a billion words about how just because something goes against the norm, it doesn't mean it's an "analytic", but that's not the point here. It was a big deal when Jacob DeGrom won the Cy Young with a 10-9 record because voters overlooked the usual stats and went with the advanced stats. I don't know the demographics of who has a vote these days, but I'm willing to bet there's plenty of old men who want things to be like they used to, and Alcantara is exactly that.

Obviously, innings aren't the end all be all for Cy Young voting. Anybody could go out there and throw a ton of innings. The Marlins could throw me out there for nine innings a game and I'd lead the league in innings pitched. Games would take forever because I wouldn't get anybody out, but I could rack up innings if they let me. The quality of the innings matters too, and Alcantara is no slouch. As of writing this, he's rocking a 1.82 ERA, and a .908 WHIP with over 100 Ks. The only other starter in the NL with a lower ERA is Tony Gonsolin - we'll get to him in a minute. The innings are there, and so is the quality.

One more thing. Sandy is fucking sick. Look at this. You can't hit that. 101 MPH that started middle-middle and ended a few inches off the plate. Good luck pal.

Corbin Burnes - Brewers (+450)

If I can choose one pitcher to lead my rotation, there's a pretty good chance I'm taking Corbin Burnes. He's been just as dominant as he was last year when he won the Cy Young. That's the problem though. In order to win the award twice in a row, you have to outdo yourself, especially if it's close competition.

In recent memory, DeGrom, Kershaw, and Scherzer have all won it twice in a row. DeGrom's second win he was unbelievable, and he beat Scherzer, who already had two. Scherzer's second win he led the league in strikeouts by a large margin, and he beat Kershaw, who already had three. There was no competition for Kershaw for his second consecutive win. He led the league in just about every statistical category

Sandy Alcantara is already the favorite to win the award and he's never won it before. Burnes will have to go absolutely nuclear the rest of the way or the wheels will have to fall off for Alcantara if he wants to win this one.

Tony Gonsolin - Dodgers (+1000)

I have nothing against Tony Gonsolin. He's having a fantastic year. He's 10-0 with a 1.54 ERA which is phenomenal. So what's the issue? The issue is he plays for the Dodgers and he's only thrown 81 innings over 15 starts. As I said before, the quality of the innings matters, and Gonsolin is throwing very high quality innings, but under six innings a start? That's not gonna get the job done for the Cy Young.

There's no real criteria for the Cy Young Award outside of "most outstanding pitcher" so it's hard to really define. It's one of those things where, to quote Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart, "I know it when I see it". He was speaking about hard-core pornography, not pitching, although some would argue that a 101 MPH sinker with 20 inches of run is a type of pornography. Not me, but some. Okay, maybe me.

If you watch Tony Gonsolin pitch, it's effective, it helps the team win, but it doesn't jump off the page. It's not appointment television like a Shohei Ohtani, Jacob DeGrom, or peak Pedro. If I'm a voter, it's hard to choose the guy throwing 93 and going five innings over the guy throwing 100 and going eight. There's more nuance to it than that, but you get the point.

All that being said, there's a chance Alcantara gets injured. There's risk of injury in literally every pick though, it's part of the process. If you're particularly risk averse you probably aren't gambling, but you could sprinkle some money on Burnes as a hedge to Sandy. He can be found at +550 on FanDuel. That's great value.